Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
What to Make of the Recent Decline in Euro Financials?
Put this together yesterday, failed to get it posted. Anyhow, believe it’s time to over-weight this group again, as we did last summer before it was trendy to “buy Europe“. That call led to huge alpha being generated by being…...
This Sleepy Industry Could Begin to Out-Perform
The ratio of the DJ Electricity Index vs. SPX is plotted below. The ratio appears to have broken out from a bullish descending wedge pattern last week. A similar pattern formed b/t 2000-2004. When it completed and broke out, the…...
Relative Out-Performance Opportunity in this Industry
I like mobile telcom and telco equipment. Look at all the charts below. The first two are the DJ US Mobile Telcom Index and the ratio of that index vs. the SPX. Both have broken out. Next, look at the…...
Rite Aid up 35% in Two Months
On February 7th we had a post on RAD noting it was working on a break-out of 15 year resistance. We also noted the stock’s industry group had favorable technical appearances as well. We suggested the following in the post…
Where do Gold Miners Stand after All the Carnage in PMs?
Wanted to update my thoughts on gold miners after precious metals have been absolutely annihilated lately. As you might remember we have been short and/or avoiding this group for a very long time dating back to posts like this and this when…...
Airlines Under-Perform by 10% on the Week…Are Silly Little Lines the Only Things That Matter?
There are plenty of people out there on the intra-webs (far more intelligent than us, no doubt) that spend their days opining on the virtues of why it’s essential for our financial-souls and well-being that we understand the inner workings…
Up 43% in Eight Months, What Next for Bio-techs?
All the way back on July 16th we began building a strong bullish case for out-performance in bio-techs. The group is up 43% since then. Along with airlines, I would say bio-tech/healthcare was the group we focused the most amount…...
Recent Carnage in Grains Historically Indicative of Sustained, Multi-Year Commodity Bear Markets
Historically, three-day declines of at least 13% in corn as we’ve just witnessed with today’s decline, are indicative of: 1) multi-year corn bear markets 2) multi-year commodity bear-markets per the CRB Commodities are in a bear market and are likely…...
Mega-Cap Consumer Index Faces Significant Long-Term Resistance
The Morgan Stanley Consumer Index faces significant resistance in the chart below represented by line (1), which dates back 15 years, as well as 161.8% Fib expansion resistance formed off its 2007 highs and 2009 lows. This index is composed…