With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
Chart Dump
I spent all weekend looking for attractive looking charts across all SPX industries. Below is a dump of the most compelling ones....
Time to Revisit the Airline Out-Performance Idea
One of the calls from this site that I’m most proud of is the long airline thematic I began laying out in spring-12 well before the group took off and well before it was fashionable to own it. Revisit these…...
Protectionism as an Emerging Macro Thematic
Deep and wide is the chasm in philosophical world views that stands between the remaining three candidates – Trump, Clinton or Sanders – for the US presidency. However, that great divide vanishes when it comes to the topic of globalization and…...
TIP Break-Out Confirms Reflation Thematic, Augers for More Equity, PM Upside
As intimated as an increasingly likely outcome in this post on 3/2/16, treasury inflation-protected securities, via the TIP ETF, are breaking out of a consolidation/flag pattern put in place b/t lines (1) and (2) over the past five years. This…...
Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally
I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...
Inflation Set to Expand?
The chart below shows TIP, or a vehicle that tracks inflation-protected treasury security prices, with a gold overlay. When TIP is rising in value inflation-protected securities are being bid up in anticipation of inflation rising; when TIP is declining it…...
Gold’s To-Date Progress off its December 2015 Lows & Why $1,375-$1,475 Should be a Worst-Case Outcome for the Current Rally
Over the past year we’ve built a catalog of work on the site calling for a major low in gold. Within that body of work we attempted to form high-probability downside price targets for the metal that would offer attractive opportunities to begin…
Draghi Disappointment Unlikely, but Half-Life of Intervention Diminishing
Below you’ll see the ratio of the EUFN (MSCI Euro Financials ETF) vs. XLF (US Financials ETF). Note the long-term downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) it’s traded in over the period in which we have trading history…....
USD Rallies in a Historical Persepctive
Below I’ve analoged the three major rallies the USD (trade-weighted USD vs. major currencies) has enjoyed since the 1970s when the US abandoned the fixed-rate exchange system and linkages to gold that had been employed since Bretton Woods. As mentioned,…...