This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...

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Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?

The implications of the Philly SOX Index under-performing the broader market severely are similar to other recent posts we’ve made about the Russell 2000’s under-performance vs. the SPX as of late as well as how low the ratio of copper vs. gold…

A few recent posts have focused on the 1900-1950 period where the 100%/50% rule was the norm – 100% cyclical rally, 50% cyclical bear.  Here’s a chart showing that. The point was to highlight that period as a good template…...

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Will reiterate once again – though the site is macro focused always be prepared to pepper in individual, company specific trading opportunities.  SBUX, CMG, FOSL (God were we wrong on that one), RIMM, RGR, etc. In the end, we want to…...

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Broad European Indices Have Rallied ~15% Since June...Now What?

The chart below shows a very broad European index, the DJ Euro STOXX 600, on a weekly closing basis. The index tested line (2) support in June and since then has rallied nearly 15%. That rally has brought it to…

Repeating Pattern in the Ratio of Copper vs. Gold Suggesting Another Fall 2008 Scenario?

We’ve commented on the ratio of copper vs. gold a few times over the past few months including here and here. The ratio tends to be a good proxy for global economic activity and risk levels. Prior posts have centered around the…

Bond / Stock Ratio Approaching a Level that has Coincided with Equity Tops Since 2007

The chart below plots the ratio of the 10 Yr UST price vs. the SPX in the top pane and the SPX in the bottom pane. When the ratio b/t the two has approached trend-line (1) since 2007, as it is doing…

The chart below compares the similarities b/t that of TPX and FOSL. The analysis in that chart is similar to the parallels we drew b/t CMG and SBUX to successfully short the latter into its EPS recently. TPX has now retraced…...

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This week the market was down each of the days Monday-Thursday and erased all of those losses on Friday with its large rally. This happened on 7/13 as well and has now happened only six times in history.  We noted…...

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If They Can't Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher

We’ve posted repeatedly about the need for stocks, given the historical limitations of cyclical bull market rallies within secular bears, to sell hard and fast at this juncture if they are going to fall at all. We did that here,…