The chart below shows the SPX on a weekly basis. Line (1) represents what we believe to be the market/economy’s most important line in the sand since 1987 – an on/off switch if you will. Why? This line is where…
The chart below compares the rally off the August 2011 weekly closing low in the SPX (black line) vs. the average rally off of some of history’s other major lows. The red line is the average rally off the 1962, 1974,…...
I’ll reiterate my very simple thesis on homebuilders which I’ve maintained for quite some time now: They remain noticeably under-valued relative to where other bubbles tend to trade ~350-400 weeks after their peak bubble prices. This was much more so…
The chart below shows the CAD$ at resistance line (1) with crude facing resistance line (2). At the same time the % of the public that is bullish the CAD$ is now at ~85%, an all-time high rivaled only in…...
All the way back on July 10th we highlighted the fact that the Euro sat on very critical support levels when it stood at ~1.21, some 600 bps lower than the current ~1.29. We noted that if one were risk-asset bullish…
Even as AAPL has risen some ~225% from its highs in 2007 GOOG shares are still DOWN 3% after peaking in the same year. We believe GOOG’s fortunes are in the process of changing as is the market’s perception of…
Since 1999 the ratio of the SPX vs. gold has declined 85%. That’s +485 bps annualized for somebody who was short the index and long gold the entire time. In the end, the logic for this trade remains quite simple:…
On August 9th we highlighted how oversold coal stocks were, with the DJ Coal Index down ~75% from its highs in 2011. We noted that similar sell-offs in the past have led to material rallies in the group. With the…
Chart below shows AAPL on a daily basis. On a more granular basis at inset (A) the stock appears to have broken down from a mild ascending wedge pattern yesterday formed by lines (1) and (2). On a longer-term basis at…...
Much has been made of the recent under-performance in the DJ Transportation Index vs. the broader market as of late. However, as the chart below details, there is no tablet carved in stone with the words “Transports must always out-perform…