Short Yen Trade a Decent Opportunity with Clearly Defined Risk Paramters?

We’ve commented over the past few months one time about the Yen increasingly looking like a decent short opportunity. That said, it wasn’t yet clear the technical set-up was in place to actually execute the trade with any conviction. This…

Yesterday the VIX crossed below 14 and closed below that threshold for the first time in over a year. It’s done this (i.e., close below 14 for the first time in over a year) only two other times in history…...

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Is 2012 for the Nikkei Analogous to 2002 for Gold?

What is the most absurd vision of the future we can come up with right now? What asset class or region seems least likely to embark on the next great secular bull market (or bear market)? Think back to the…...

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VIX Approaching Long-Term Support; Signaling Global Risks About to Flare?

In the chart below the VIX is approaching long-term support line (1). Since 2007, it has been along this line where the VIX has experienced its most notable rips and the SPX its most notable dips and tops. Should the VIX…

Did Corn Meet its Maker Today?

Corn and grains in general have had a massive rally this summer due to the heat and lack of precipitation across the U.S. That’s pretty much been the case here in CLE, OH as well – a lot of heat,…

Coal Stocks are Down 75% (the World Doesn't Need Coal Anymore?)

The DJ Coal Index was recently down ~75% off its proximate highs. Two similar declines have happened over the past decade in front of material rallies. Does the world no longer need coal?  Permanent structural changes because of how cheap…

Chart Dump of 16 Long Opportunities

Though this market is a crap show at the broad index level, it doesn’t mean there aren’t a ton of opportunities at the company specific level. The notable moves of the past two weeks have come as the out-performers (XLU,…

Commercial Hedgers Love Copper & Large Speculators Hate It; Which Group Usually Gets It Right?

The chart below shows that commercial hedgers have amassed the largest net long position in the metal since 2004. At the same time, large speculators have amassed one of the largest short positions they’ve ever held over the same period….

This is the third post I’ve put up behind the “protected” wall today, so hopefully you guys can give me a break tomorrow if no such posts appear. Anyhow, much has been made of the recent drop in the VIX,…...

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Semis Have Badly Under-Performed the Broader Market for Nearly Two Years; What are the Implications?

The implications of the Philly SOX Index under-performing the broader market severely are similar to other recent posts we’ve made about the Russell 2000’s under-performance vs. the SPX as of late as well as how low the ratio of copper vs. gold…