Analog Update
I’m just going to present analogs first and then following those visuals try to tie it all together into some type of assessment of what they all mean. 1) Dow – 4 Yr RoC > 100% – All – Weekly…...
Predictable
Such were the materially large moves in Ukraine’s equity and FX markets over the past ~10 trading days, per the transparent technical patterns in the chart below, which portended that both were on the verge of transpiring. Of course, the…
Nikkei Analog Update
The concept for this analog was originally presented here as a refresher. Updates for the analog are provided across time-frames as follows: Daily Weekly Both are remarkably identical. In fact, this is one of the closest analogs I’ve ever put…...
Favored Single Stock Update
TIVO continues to look excellent in my opinion. It’s ever so close to breaking out if it can manage to get above line (1) in the chart below, which it has attacked with increasing frequency over the past year. Second,…...
Taking the Blinders Off
I think this game we play, the one where we attempt to divine the future direction of financial markets, is the toughest one that one can play professionally. By its very nature it renders success impossible, at least if perfection…...
The Conundrum that Remains Gold?
With its 2/13/14 close of $1,302 gold managed to close above its 200 day moving average (MA) for the first time since 2/8/13, or for the first time in over a year. Dating back as far as I have daily…...
Semi Update
Wanted to provide a quick blurb on the semi space and note that it appears as if our recent bull case on the group is just now beginning to bear fruit. As it stands, YTD the SOX is now up…...
In the Face of “EM Crisis” Calls, Shenzhen Index to Rally an Additional 20%-35% in 2014
Two weeks ago there was a two day period in which, yet again, the world was ending and there was an imminent EM crisis on the horizon. Apparently, two days of VOL is all it takes to signal the “EM…...
Adding a Wrinkle to the Nikkei
On the site we’ve repeatedly discussed the Nikkei’s massive rally from fall 2012 to May 2013 which, over the course of ~six months, totaled ~85% and how among other major asset classes we can find only two other examples of…...
Commodity Rally to be Short-Lived?
We’ve had a few posts on the site about coffee since 2012. These posts have centered around: 1) Coffee’s April 2011 high was a major top, analogous to only a few other such tops in its history 2) Coffee would…...