Break-Out in TED Spread Implies further CNY Depreciation, ECB Balance Sheet Expansion and EU Financials Weakness
Dating back to the beginning of the GFC the TED spread – what amounts to cross-border, inter-bank borrowing/lending rates vs. risk free t-bills – has been an excellent proxy for rising financial system contagion and counter-party aversion, which, ultimately has manifested itself in…...
Bovespa Break-Out
In the chart below the Brazilian Bovespa is breaking above ~six year channel resistance dating back to 2010(!) on absolute basis in the top pane and is breaking out of a bullish descending wedge vs. the SPX in the lower pane,…...
Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX
In the chart below I plot the SMH semiconductor ETF vs. SPY on a monthly closing basis. Note that it is breaking above line (1) and (2) resistance; line (1) dates back ~16 years and line (2) a decade. This…...
Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot (to SPX 2,400+ by 2016 Year-End)
In March of this year in this post I outlined why it appeared increasingly likely that all the insanity that had occurred off the May-15 top for US equities was merely a mid or late-cycle pause, akin to similar one-year holding patterns…...