Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my mid-cycle pause analog framework and a month since I did so in great detail. It’s time to update our progress. Here’s the SPY since its May-15 peak (black) vs. all of the DJI’s paths…...
No Good Bulls
Below I plot last week’s AAII reading for bulls. At just 19%, there are among the fewest % of bullish respondents in the survey’s history dating back to the early 90s. Indeed, there have only been 17 other readings this…...
Assessing the Recent Breadth & Volume Thrusts in U.S. Equities
In the chart below I plot the SPX in the top pane along with NYSE intermediate-term breadth and volume momentum oscillators in middle and lower panes, respectively. In early Mar-16 both of the latter oscillators concurrently generated prints > 200…...
Analog Update
Here’s an update to our mid-cycle pause into a blow-off rally analog, but with a slight change. In the previous analog we plotted the path taken off the May-15 high and compared it to the paths taken during 1926-1927, 1953-1954…...
More Evidence Supporting a Sizable Near-Term Gold Decline
Yesterday in this post we detailed why a Aug-93 outcome for gold that sees it decline ~600-700 bps in a single day was a heightened probability in the near-term. Today I offer additional, yet totally separate, evidence to support that…...
Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?
When one thinks about the world’s largest exporters of “widgets”, China and Japan come to mind first. Which, in turn, should lead one to a consideration of the JPYCNY cross. Now, given the CNY peg to USD, the JPYCNY cross…...
Heightened Prospects of a Material Single-Day Plunge in Gold
In a recent post on gold we highlighted its generally bullish position with respect to our historical framework but added the caveat that it faced a significant near-term test – i.e., the 1993 analog comparison which showed how it had traded…...
CRB Index Back to 45-Yr Resistance as Syrian Cease-Fire Falls Apart
Until the CRB crashed through it in late 2015/early 2016, line (1) in the chart below had held as support for over 40 years dating back to the early/mid 1970s, or the area where the hyperbolic ramp of commodity prices…...
Recent Renewal in Gold Upside Fits Our Historically Bullish Framework but Metal Faces Major Near-Term Test
On 1/18/16 I declared in this post that gold’s cycle low was in and only the path, duration and magnitude of any upside move was in question. Prior to that declaration, we emphasized over and over during the latter parts of…...
Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme
In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...