Pinpointing a Bottom in Bitcoin
With my oft-repeated suggestion that XBT will reach $1 million in 2018 looking more comical by the day, I thought it appropriate to revisit the asset with a focus not on trying to predict upside, but on attempting to pinpoint a near-term…...
GE Approaching 50-Yr Relative Support
In the chart below the ratio of GE vs. the SPX is approaching 50-yr support dating back to 1970. Historically, this support has helped launch major relative rallies in the stock vs. the broader market. On its own, GE is…...
PM VOL Compression
Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments in which…...
Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?
Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post. And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...
Revisiting the Defense Industry as the First-Ever Audit of the DoD Commences
All the way back in this Oct-12 post I highlighted the defense industry and a few of its individual components, noting what I thought were theire overall bullish positioning vs. the broader market after a decent stretch of under-performance. Below I…...
Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially
Bloomberg publishes a ‘Probability of US Recession Index’ (PROBRECN) based on a machine learning model developed by University of Oregon professor Jeremy Piger. Here’s how Bloomberg describes the index and more detail can be found here: In effect, based on…...
How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?
Haven’t updated my thoughts on Bitcoin (BB: XBT) in quite some time. I’m going to simply re-present the same set-up I did in our original thesis on XBT way back in Feb-17 when it was printing $1K, not the $20K it reached…...
Analyst Price Target Changes as a Contrarian Indicator
Having spent three years on the sell-side as an equity research analyst, I know first-hand how the game works: You have price targets (Px) for stocks on your coverage list and if the market randomly corrects, your director of research…...
Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels
Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level. It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...
Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?
I’d like to use this post to analyze the current ~10% correction in US equities in the context of our mid-cycle pause analog. As that framework goes, I’m not entirely surprised the correction is occurring here and now. I’m not…...