Is Barron’s Call for a Credit Crisis in China Correct?
Two weeks ago Barron’s made what appeared to be a bold call for a credit crisis in China. They all but suggested that the probability of a Depression-style event was either rising or imminent. But, similar to their call to…...
Recent Divergence in Equity/Commodity Performance Not Atypical in Context of History
In the scatter-plot below I show the 2 Yr RoC in the SPX (Y-axis) vs. the 2 Yr Roc in the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) (X-Axis) dating back to 1986. In the last few weeks the plot has been clustering…...
Shipping Rates Set to Rise?
Add this to the obscure posts category. I’ve never spoken about the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) before but when you do hear about it, if you do at all, it’s usually re: how badly it’s been declining and why that’s…...
When will This Commodity’s Downside End?
Warming up to coffee given the historical tendency for downside to abate when the two year RoC (i.e,. price momentum) reaches the -55% level, as it is now. This is in contrast to our ardent bearishness on the product dating…...
Silver Analog Has Been Fulfilled, Nearly Perfectly
Here’s the updated silver analog chart below. Amazingly, it has been fulfilled nearly perfectly since we originally pointed it out as a reason to be short and/or avoid the PM complex all together. That was done all the way back…...
Additional Market Internals Suggest Panic Selling of Late
The vestige of 2008/2009 (or the summers of 2010/2011) and the specter of similar such events to come, seem to result in panic-induced selling quite frequently anymore. It seems as if market internals get ravaged so quickly that mere ~5%…...
What Can Market Internals Tell Us About the Current U.S. Equity Sell-off?
If the selling is to continue, it likely does so until the 10 day MA of the ratio of NYSE 52 week lows vs. highs reaches the high teens in the chart below. As of right now, per the red…...
Will Emerging Market Underperformance Ever Cease?
I’ve been very mute on the topic of EMs for most of the site’s history. The only topic of conversation that has been seen on these pages has revolved around the idea that the decade long bull market in commodities…...
Is the Recent Increase in Rates Sustainable?
I believe it is. As we pointed out last week in this post, the ratio of the SPX vs. TYX was suggested a large and imminent move in one of two asset classes – either the SPX or rates. Turns…...
Prospect of Consolidation Could Support Out-Performance of this Industry
In the recent past there’s been some noise in the beleaguered publishing/media industry re: consolidation/M&A. Just last week GCI announced they’d pay a ~30% premium to acquire the media assets of BLC. On Friday, TWC shares rose by ~9% on…...