Bottom Fishing in AAPL Remains Ill-Advised
We’ve been bearish on this name since early October when it stood at $658 all the way back to this post. We noted at the time that if support were to give way it would likely fall ~20%-35% lower to…
20 Year Support + 6% Dividend Yield = Random Long Opportunity of the Day
This post is a combo fundamental / technical opportunity. The stock floated through a deep value / LBO screen I use on Bloomberg. It happens to yield 6%+ and is approaching a ~20 year support line in the chart below,…
Airlines Have Greatly Out-Performed the SPX Since late May; More Upside to Come?
Our first post on the airlines and their potential for out-performance moving forward dates back to May 30 in this post. Since that time, when global risk assets in general were near their corrective summer lows, the S&P 500 Airlines…
USD Bottoming & Consolidation Process Complete?
Here is the last post we had on this topic. We update to include price action through this morning (USD @ ~80.43). Per the chart below, the USD sits atop line (1) support which has been in place since April…...
Houston, Do we Have a Problem?
Remember this post that had us wildly bullish a few months back given the statistical significance of its conclusions? Well, that analysis went into effect as of the week of 8/17/12, the week we received the signal. As of the…...
Euro Financials Have Beat the SPX by 30% Since Summer, Now What?
The chart below plots the ratio of the DJ Euro Financials Index vs. SPX This ratio has risen by ~30% since this summer after bottoming along line (3). For some background on why Euro-centric has out-performed U.S.-centric in recent months,…...
Trade Idea in Gold Miners
I think it’s time to be short this group. Referring back to this post from July 21, we noted the potential for a repeating pattern in the Arca Gold Miners index. In that post, we noted the index could bounce…...
Euro Approaching Resistance
In the chart below the Euro is very close to reaching resistance line (1) which has been in place since April/May 2011 as global risk assets first began topping out in front of the summer/fall mini-crash in the SPX. Using…
If Silver Was a Bubble and 2011 Marked the Top, This is Where the Second Wave of Selling Likely Begins
It’s been a long time since we’ve done any work on silver or precious metals for that matter. There just haven’t been many interesting technical set-ups to speak of one way or the other. However, that seems to have changed…...
Getting Granular: Equities Cheap vs. Credit?
We plot the path HYG & JNK have traveled against SPY over the past year in the chart below. They have all tended to track together over the past year. Just as equities appeared expensive vs. credit in 2Q12 in front of…