Time for Equities to be Worried?
Chart below shows locations on the SPX where each of the following are fulfilled: 1) Intra-day high represents a new one-year high 2) Intra-day high at least 50 bps > previous day close 3) Intra-day low at least 75 bps…
Systematic Model Update
The model generated its first sell signal yesterday, 8/20, since March 12th. As I highlight in the chart below, this means NOTHING until one of two things happen (or both): 1) We see lots of choppiness around this proximate top 2)…...
USD Finally Going to Find Support & Bounce, Hurt Precious Metals in the Process?
We’ve been broadly bearish on the USD since May. We’ve outlined the justification for that stance in various posts in the recnent past here and here. In a nutshell, from a statistical standpoint, history told us that the USD’s recent…
The Dow Has Never Had Four Consecutive Annual Gains in a Secular Bear Market / Are Central Banks Breaking Historical Market Cycles?
Do you believe this is a secular bear market? If you do, take note that the Dow has never registered four consecutive annual gains in a secular bear market – EVER. And yet, it was up in each of 2009,…
Is The Russell 2000 Now Working on a 1995 Style Break-Out?
Our earliest posts on the R2K were directionally bearish in nature. On 5/30 we suggested the index’s path of least resistance was likely down. A month later on 6/27 we then suggested downside risks remained elevated over the intermediate-term. Neither…...
Was October 2011 a Major Low for the SPX? Crazy to Suggest SPX 1,685-1,800 by Winter 2013?
Though it was very abrupt and amounted to only ~20%, the sell-off of last summer/fall in the SPX does share statistical similarities to history’s other major sell-offs and bear markets. When we became aware of this last year (and we…...
This Mystery Asset Looks to Share Two Bubble Tops Strikingly Similar to Silver’s Bubble Tops in 1980 and 2011
I’m not going to reveal what the top chart is yet as the whole point of this analysis is to clear our mind of biases and facilitate fluid and objective thought outside of the box. The lower chart I…...
Aussie $ Appears to be Fading at Important Test of Resistance
Chart below is of the Aussie $. In May it broke down from a long-term, bearish ascending wedge pattern formed by lines (1) and (2). Line (1) ran across its highs from 1995 onward while line (2) ran underneath its…
Systematic Models Signaling Long or Short Right Here?
Close, but no cigar on the short signal. Only 9% in incremental complacency and we’ll get there on the systematic model. Probably down to about two-four trading days in terms of time. After that, we need to see volatility (choppy…...
Defining Alpha: Euro Financials Have Outperformed U.S. Ones by 9% Since We Suggested the Possibility on 5/31
All the way back on 5/31 we highlighted the potential for European financials to begin outperforming their U.S. counterparts, with this chart justifying the rational in that post. In that post we commented as follows: Ostensibly, such out-performance (of Euro…