Silver’s Current Decline in the Context of Our Longer-Term Thesis
Amazingly, given all the commentary we’ve had on silver via email and phone conversations, there hasn’t been an official updated post on the PM since April. Most, if not all of the reason for this, is the fact that my…...
Arabica Update
Per the chart below, coffee remains caught in a bullish, descending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). It appears to be pressing the top of that pattern’s resistance at line (1), suggesting a break-out may be nigh. Additionally, the…...
Recent Rally in Crude to Pressure Equities?
SentimenTrader had an interesting analysis on the short and intermediate-term rally we’ve seen in oil this year and when it’s happened in the past, its implications for stocks. They looked at periods in the past when crude has jumped at…...
22 Year Support at Hand for This Commodity
In the chart below I plot Nat Gas on a monthly basis. I’ve been very silent on this for quite awhile – there’s simply been nothing to do with the product. Having said that, the recent sell-off makes for a…...
How Gold’s Recent Decline Measures Up Against History
In the chart below I plot gold against its 2 Yr RoC. Though it stands at only -15% right now, come August/September when it will be lapping its August/September 2011 highs, its 2 Yr RoC will be ~-35%, assuming steady…...
Short-Term Nikkei Thoughts
Short-term Nikkei thoughts, though in the context of a longer-term, more secular view-point. In the chart below I show the Nikkei over the past year on a daily basis and copper in the 2004 time-frame, also on a daily basis…....
Recent Divergence in Equity/Commodity Performance Not Atypical in Context of History
In the scatter-plot below I show the 2 Yr RoC in the SPX (Y-axis) vs. the 2 Yr Roc in the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) (X-Axis) dating back to 1986. In the last few weeks the plot has been clustering…...
When will This Commodity’s Downside End?
Warming up to coffee given the historical tendency for downside to abate when the two year RoC (i.e,. price momentum) reaches the -55% level, as it is now. This is in contrast to our ardent bearishness on the product dating…...
Silver Analog Has Been Fulfilled, Nearly Perfectly
Here’s the updated silver analog chart below. Amazingly, it has been fulfilled nearly perfectly since we originally pointed it out as a reason to be short and/or avoid the PM complex all together. That was done all the way back…...
Spread Trade Idea in Commodities Could Offer 50% Upside
The ratio of palladium vs. silver is plotted below. The ratio is breaking out from a near decade-old consolidation pattern formed by lines (2) and (3). The logical upside target for the ratio is ~0.45x or nearly 50% higher. This…...