The Fed Plans to Hike Rates as it Fails at Its Price Stability Mandate; Gold Should Soon Begin Rising as a Result
Along the lines of our post two days ago re: the St. Louis Fed’s new deflation indicator, below we present a similar indicator that tracks the same institution’s estimate of the Fed hitting its mandated 2.0% (i.e., midpoint of 1.5%-2.5%) inflation…...
Gold, Rarely a Rush: Part 2
For more than a year now we’ve made a concerted effort to continuously revisit the ideas that PMs, especially gold, had more ultimate upside left in a major structural bull cycle despite the fact that cyclically speaking, they had been in…...
If a Sustained Bull is Underway for PMs Gold Could Plausibly Reach $8K+
In the recent past we’ve used posts such as this and this to highlight later-1976 as a potential corollary to where gold stands today v-a-v its current cycle placement. Yesterday we drilled into the USD’s set-up and found what appears to be strong…...
PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance
In the chart below take note of the simple fact that the DXY index (USD) appears poised to break down from a consolidation/flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) through much of 2015 at inset (A) while at inset (B), it is…...
30s10s Curve Steepener a Prelude to Higher Gold Prices
In the chart below I’ve plotted the ratio b/t the yield on 30 (TYX) and 10 (TNX) year treasuries over time. The ratio is simply another way to look at the bps spread diff b/t the two. Note that at each…...
How’s It Going Down?
As I ponder where the world stands from a macro/market cycle standpoint I’m reminded of one of my favorite rappers in the halcyon years of being a teenager in rural Corry, PA, DMX, and the best track that came off his debut album, It’s…...
$1177 & Why Gold Has Proven Nothing Yet
The #’d title in this post refers to gold’s 12 mo MA. In our recent PM work we’ve suggested the current set-up in gold most resembles its set-up in 1976, 1982 and 1984 into major cyclical or structural lows. That…...
Gold Inching Ever Closer into what Will Likely Be a Major, Multi-Year Low
We’ve been through PMs fairly extensively as of late (this is our third on the topic in a month vs. eight total in the previous two years). Our most recent work on the space has generally been time-focused. Specifically, we’ve…
Characteristics of PMs Today Increasingly Resemble that of SSEC in 2013, DJI in 1942
All the way back in July 2013 we began building a case for being long the SSEC even as Barron’s was then calling for the re-emergence of a crisis in the region. Arguably the most important pillar of our long thesis…...
Commodities/EMs Likely Near a Bottom
The operative word here is near. In the chart below the CRB Index is fast approaching long-term support on a monthly basis. Support dates back to the 1999 and 2002 lows for commodities. In addition, the ratio of crude vs. gold…...