Silver Analog Update
Here’s how our thinking on silver has evolved over the past year: 12/2/12 (Silver = ~$34) “We would suggest being short the metal given the resistance at hand.” “If silver can’t exhibit some bullishness very quickly, I’d be inclined to…...
Silver Update
On 9/16 we noted the USD was breaking 30 month support on the heels of Larry Summer’s announced withdrawal from the race to replace Bernanke. We suggested this could be a good, corroborative signal to our bullish, long-term silver thesis. As…...
USD Breaking Below 30 Month Support
The USD bottomed in April 2011; silver peaked at the same time at its decade-long high of $50. Since then the USD has been in an uptrend defined by line (1) support; silver has been in a downtrend defined by…...
Silver’s Current Decline in the Context of Our Longer-Term Thesis
Amazingly, given all the commentary we’ve had on silver via email and phone conversations, there hasn’t been an official updated post on the PM since April. Most, if not all of the reason for this, is the fact that my…...
How Gold’s Recent Decline Measures Up Against History
In the chart below I plot gold against its 2 Yr RoC. Though it stands at only -15% right now, come August/September when it will be lapping its August/September 2011 highs, its 2 Yr RoC will be ~-35%, assuming steady…...
Silver Analog Has Been Fulfilled, Nearly Perfectly
Here’s the updated silver analog chart below. Amazingly, it has been fulfilled nearly perfectly since we originally pointed it out as a reason to be short and/or avoid the PM complex all together. That was done all the way back…...
PMs Experienced a Crash of Sorts in April, Now What?
I’m not convinced that when an asset experiences a crash/mini-crash-like event as PMs did in April that they immediately bottom and begin a sustained thrust higher like nothing happened. Such technical destruction tends to result in highly volatile bottoming processes…....
Gold at its Most Critical Juncture Since 1999 Secular Lows; About to Begin Out-Performing Again?
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. gold. As of mid 2011 that ratio had declined by ~90% from its 1999 highs, defining the opposing secular bear and bull markets for the SPX and gold, respectively, over…...
Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
Isn’t the USD Supposed to Drive PMs?
A few weeks back we plotted the Yen against various PMs in this post and suggested the latter had to “catch down” to the former given 1) they have tended to act as leading indicators for one another’s fair value, with…