Long AMZN, Short AAPL Pair Trade Has Legs
On 12/17/15 in this post we highlighted the favorable technical set-up in the ratio of AMZN vs. AAPL and said the following about the first chart below, which is the chart we presented in the original post: “Here’s AMZN vs. AAPL. I…
SPX Upside to Resume with USD Break-Down
We first broke this chart out a few weeks ago in this post and have updated it below. Without reinventing the wheel, here’s what we said about the chart in that original post: “Per the plots below, note that the SPX’s…...
Looking for the Next Break in the Ongoing Chinese Depression
In late December we noted via this post that the SSEC’s crash off its mid-15 highs to-date was very similar-looking to the path the DJI took of its 1929 high to begin the Great Depression. Here’s an updated version of the analog comparing…...
DAX is Unequivocally in a Major Bear Market
The chart below plots the DAX against off its Apr-15 high vs. the paths it took off its two other most recent and major structural highs, those being the Mar-00 and Oct-07 peaks that led to 65% and 55% bear…
Nigh is the Day of GREXIT?
Much has recently been made about this past weekend’s leak regarding a recent discussion two senior IMF officials had over triggering an “event” that would force Greek to comply with the EU/IMF demands heading into negotiations re: upcoming debt maturities. The timing…...
With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
Chart Dump
I spent all weekend looking for attractive looking charts across all SPX industries. Below is a dump of the most compelling ones....
Time to Revisit the Airline Out-Performance Idea
One of the calls from this site that I’m most proud of is the long airline thematic I began laying out in spring-12 well before the group took off and well before it was fashionable to own it. Revisit these…...
Protectionism as an Emerging Macro Thematic
Deep and wide is the chasm in philosophical world views that stands between the remaining three candidates – Trump, Clinton or Sanders – for the US presidency. However, that great divide vanishes when it comes to the topic of globalization and…...
Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally
I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...