USD Rallies in a Historical Persepctive
Below I’ve analoged the three major rallies the USD (trade-weighted USD vs. major currencies) has enjoyed since the 1970s when the US abandoned the fixed-rate exchange system and linkages to gold that had been employed since Bretton Woods. As mentioned,…...
Additional Signs of Reflation and Implications for Gold
Earlier today in this post I discussed that the Producer Price Index for all commodities, or the PCAC Index (Bloomberg ticker), was signaling the potential for a strong global reflationary event to occur in the intermediate-term. I wanted to build on…...
Does a Major Reflationary Event Stand on the Horizon?
The PCAC Index (US PPI for all commodities) is plotted on a monthly basis below dating back to the early 1900s. As of the last print (Jan-16) and following a significant multi-year decline, it was a hair away from reaching…...
Can Gold Rally Without Commodities in General Also Participating?
Short answer: yes. Below I’ve shown all of gold’s trough to peak rallies dating back to the early 70s, or when Nixon abandoned the gold standard. What you’ll find is that out of six major cyclical or secular rallies in gold’s history,…...
Multi-Decade Break-outs in Gold vs. Various Industrial Commodities Signals Major Monetary System Change Afoot
Proportional end demand by the industrial sector is exceedingly larger for crude (all), copper (all) and silver (~50%) vs. gold (~10%-15%). Keep the above in mind when looking at the three charts below which plot ratios of gold vs. all three aforementioned…...
Should History Hold, USDMXN at Multi-Decade Channel Resistance Signals Potential for Pivot Higher in Risk Assets, Inflation
In the first chart below I show USDMXN (USD vs. Peso). For nearly two decades back to the latter part of the 90s USDMXN has traveled in an upward-sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2). Over time it has reached…...
Gold’s 99.8th Percentile Event Last Week Confirms New, Sustained Bull Market
On 12/17/15 in this post we began stressing the likelihood of a new, emerging macro thematic positing the likelihood of a favorable divergence in gold-specific fortunes vs. other commodities moving forward. At the time of that original post the ratio of gold vs…....
Gold’s Moment of Clarity
I believe the work I’ve done on gold over the past year is arguably the best I’ve ever done on this site, both in terms of quality and how comprehensive it’s been. I stand by that even should the conclusions from…...
The Federal Reserve’s Epochal Bubble-Creating, Cycle-Breaking Abilities
The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high in late-2014, surpassing the previous one it put in place in the early 2000s at the height of the tech bubble. This successful reclamation project was quite a feat – in accomplishing it…...
Has Russia Signaled the end of the Global Emerging Market Bear Cycle?
Over and over we have used the DJI over the course of 1904-1914 as an analogy to emerging markets (via EEM as a proxy) from 2004-current. Conversely, we’ve belabored the idea that 1937 and/or 1974 are the best analogies for…...