Big Picture Update
Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...
Analog/Cycle Update
The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...
2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year
On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...
Counting Both Up & Down
The markets have rallied very nicely as of late. I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...
A Look at Historical Secular Bears
Consider the very long-term DJI chart below with quarterly price data extending back to the late 19th century. In it you’ll find annotations of the index’s three historical secular bear markets from the early 20th century (1905-1925), off the pre…...
Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia
Just the other day the deep state trotted out Immortan Joe Biden in an interview with Chuck Todd to let the world know it was planning a “covert” cyber attack on Russia and Putin for their alleged involvement in holding…
Analog Update
I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...
US Equity Analog Update
I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...
Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot (to SPX 2,400+ by 2016 Year-End)
In March of this year in this post I outlined why it appeared increasingly likely that all the insanity that had occurred off the May-15 top for US equities was merely a mid or late-cycle pause, akin to similar one-year holding patterns…...
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top?)
“Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” — Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged As intensely volatile – and often times scary – as the…