All the Macro that’s Fit to Print
Every corner rounded seems to be producing a different chimera to be contended with at the moment. BREXIT, growing portions of sovereign debt lurching into negative-yield territory, NIRP chaos and its impact on Euro banks, China deval/credit collapse, Islamo-fascism, Fed tightening and…...
Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my mid-cycle pause analog framework and a month since I did so in great detail. It’s time to update our progress. Here’s the SPY since its May-15 peak (black) vs. all of the DJI’s paths…...
Analog Update
Here’s an update to our mid-cycle pause into a blow-off rally analog, but with a slight change. In the previous analog we plotted the path taken off the May-15 high and compared it to the paths taken during 1926-1927, 1953-1954…...
Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme
In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...
With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally
I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...
Has Russia Signaled the end of the Global Emerging Market Bear Cycle?
Over and over we have used the DJI over the course of 1904-1914 as an analogy to emerging markets (via EEM as a proxy) from 2004-current. Conversely, we’ve belabored the idea that 1937 and/or 1974 are the best analogies for…...
Nimr al-Nimr as Franz Ferdinand (Echoes of 1914 Update)
As far back as 7/23/15, three weeks before the CNH devaluation and a full four weeks before global risk assets began plunging, I laid out what I thought was a compelling case for the period of 2004-2015 for emerging market equities…...
At 74 Months, This is the Second Longest Bull Cycle in History
We began discussing the length of the current bull cycle in Jul-12 in this post; at the time we were at 34 months in duration. In an attempt to be objective, as some will define cycle length to suit some…...
Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?
I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post. It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...