Emergence of Solid Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Amazing Run
We’ve spent the better portion of the past few weeks focused almost entirely on the Nikkei in an attempt to better understand what’s going on with its current price action in the context of similarly positive episodes throughout the Dow’s…...
Has the Nikkei Begun a New Secular Bull Market?
Before you read this post, please take a moment to read this one first, our earliest Nikkei post on the site, as I believe it was likely our first on this subject. I’m pointing it out not to congratulate myself…...
The Nikkei’s Price Action Continues to Offer a Veritable Gold Mine of Historical Informational Content
One of the things we have increasingly struggled with is that the Nikkei’s recent price action continues to statistically align with periods of instability and downside in the Dow. Just yesterday we had a post here pointing out as much,…...
Could Yen Weakness & Nikkei Strength Continue Unabated? If so, How Long and to What Degree?
No crappy editorials on how bad Japan’s economy is and debt this, inflation/deflation that, demographics him, GDP growth her… One chart. The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei has traveled in this upward channel defined by lines (1) and (2)…...
The Nikkei’s 99.99th Percentile Price Action
With the Nikkei’s massive move last night it has managed a two-day, +530 bps rally. At the same time, its bull cycle is stretched as the four-year RoC already stands at +44%. In other words, though being deep in the…...
GE May Provide Excellent Read-Throughs to Future Risk Appetite in the Broader Market
Present the Dow below with a large inset of the ratio of GE vs. the SPX. Note that the ratio of GE vs. SPX has tended to trade in a sideways, cyclical channel since the 1970s as defined by lines…...
Recent Nikkei Price Action Rare in Context of Nearly 120 Years of Dow Trading History
The Nikkei gained 19.3% in 1Q13. Impressive, no doubt. How impressive? Since the late 1890s the Dow has had only 11 quarters where it’s gained at least 19%, making such occurrences a 2.4/100 event. I present those instances in the…...
Additional Historical Data to Clarify Cycle Type & Location
Last week SentimenTrader had a nice little piece detailing other periods in history where the SPX had gone at least five years before registering a new 10-year high as it did on Thursday. Thursday’s signal was the fourth in history…....
Equity Analog Update
Was reasonably confident, per the analog below, we’d get a quick, ~400 bps correction into ~14K on the Dow sometime in the past week or two. Increasingly, that appears unlikely. If it doesn’t happen, there’s a good chance the Dow…...
IBEX Faces Material Falling Resistance; Long-Term Bear Market to Resume?
In the chart below Spain’s IBEX faces long-term falling resistance line (1), after rallying ~30% off support line (2). If line (2) were ever to give way as support, line (3), which runs parallel to line (1) and forms a…