Is This Line Relevant to the Nikkei?
Is line (1) in the chart below relevant to the Nikkei per history? If so, what happens with a sustained break above it, if anything?
Central Banks Have Done an Excellent Job of Back-Stopping Global Risk Appetite
The chart below plots the average path that U.S. secular bear markets (1901-1921; 1929-1942; 1966-1982) have taken through history and compares it to the path the current (presumed) secular bear of 2000-2012. The path of the current had plotted nearly…
Nikkei Tacks on Another ~3% Tonight To its Already Incredible Run; Where’s the Next Relevant Resistance?
The Nikkei’s run has been incredible over the past few months. In early June 2012 at the global equity bottom, futures were trading at ~8,225 vs. the current 10,880. That’s a 30% gain in six months. In the chart below…...
Working Thesis for 2013
Let’s just get this out of the way right up front – I was completely,unequivocally wrong to pivot to the “not-bullish / mildly bearish” camp late last week. I think it’s quite clear that the combination of Monday’s ~25 pt…
Re-Thinking the Proper Analogs & Trading Environment
This post builds off my previous email today in which I effectively drew a line in the sand and pivoted to the “not bullish / mildly bearish” camp. As I noted in that email, with the Dow down ~340 bps…...
Russell 2000 Faces Resistance on a Relative Basis & Could Under-Perform for Years
Dating back to June of this year we have been suggesting that the potential for a longer-term reversal in the USD could lead to small-caps sustainably under-performing the broader market. We continue to believe this today. Even if the USD…
Updated Thoughts on Silver
It appears as if silver might break line (1) support in the chart below. If so, the post bubble analog suggests it could fall hard and fast. In this event, the most likely target would be ~$26-$28 at line (2A)…...
SPX Break-out Appears Confirmed
Last week we had a post suggesting the SPX was breaking out in a big way on Wednesday the 12th. We noted at the time that the move higher would need to include the market holding there through the end…
Airlines Continue to Out-Perform the Broader Market but is the Pace Set to Accelerate?
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. FAA (airline ETF). Note that this week the ratio is breaking below support line (1) and seemingly falling back into a channel whose bottom is defined by line (2). If…
Analog Update: You Can’t Stop this Bull, You can Only Hope to Contain it
Ridiculous title aside (which is a vague reference to the phrase I heard over and over again listening to commentators do play-by-play for the greatest athlete of all time growing up as a kid), could you ask for a better road…...