I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….
Below I plot the Tadawul Index – Saudi Arabia’s main equity index. Note that it has rallied up to test falling resistance off its 2006 and 2014 swing highs and that the former occurred 623 weeks ago. One of the…
In the context of “needing” equity exposure, I present below a handful of relative industry set-ups that I find technically interesting. To reiterate, these are relative, not absolute industry out-performance ideas. In the event of major equity downside, consider them…
DB – the German-traded shares – now sit at 25-yr support with this morning’s ~5% decline baked into the cake. As the health of this behemoth appears increasingly tenuous, we must remind ourselves that DB holds anywhere from ~$40-$50 trillion…
I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in two months. This thesis is largely…
I continue to believe, as crazy as it sounds, that the Nikkei might round-trip its 30-yr decline from 40K in 1989 by getting back to that level either this or next year. I’ve outlined the case for this scenario two…
In early 2016 amid the global commodity/EM crash the ratio of crude oil vs. gold reached a historic, ~135-yr low, per the chart below. However, per the falling resistance in the monthly chart above, as well as the more detailed…
In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound. Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...
Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...
The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC. That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…