Despite Pledge of Infinite QE from Fed, Commodities Under-Performing over Past Week
The table below shows the one-week relative performance of global macro assets. This is an important table to think about given the material announcement from the Fed last week that it will be doing open-ended QE for the forseeable future….
Downside in Grains Set to Accelerate?
As you know, we’ve been reasonably bearish on this group dating back to July, with most of that focus being on corn, as these posts here and here highlight for background. In fact, on August 10, when corn was 7% higher,…...
Time to Warm Up to Nat Gas?
I’ve shown you the analog chart with housing and all the other “popped” bubbles. This is the chart that left us believing housing was a compelling trade last year and remains one today. We’ve also used the chart of late…...
Did Yesterday’s Open-Ended QE Announcement by the Fed Usher in a New Reflationary Wave?
The chart below shows the SPX on a weekly basis. Line (1) represents what we believe to be the market/economy’s most important line in the sand since 1987 – an on/off switch if you will. Why? This line is where…
Updating the Comparison of the SPX Rally off the August 2011 Weekly Closing Low vs. Other Major Rallies Through History
The chart below compares the rally off the August 2011 weekly closing low in the SPX (black line) vs. the average rally off of some of history’s other major lows. The red line is the average rally off the 1962, 1974,…...
Despite 175% Rally From August 2011, S&P Homebuilder Index Still Has ~20%-50% More Upside
I’ll reiterate my very simple thesis on homebuilders which I’ve maintained for quite some time now: They remain noticeably under-valued relative to where other bubbles tend to trade ~350-400 weeks after their peak bubble prices. This was much more so…
CAD$ at Resistance & Bulls At All-Time High
The chart below shows the CAD$ at resistance line (1) with crude facing resistance line (2). At the same time the % of the public that is bullish the CAD$ is now at ~85%, an all-time high rivaled only in…...
Any Chance the Draghi Put is Now Priced Into the Euro & Corresponding Risk Assets in the Near-Term?
All the way back on July 10th we highlighted the fact that the Euro sat on very critical support levels when it stood at ~1.21, some 600 bps lower than the current ~1.29. We noted that if one were risk-asset bullish…
GOOG’s Day in the Sun is Likely Arriving with $1,000 in the Cards
Even as AAPL has risen some ~225% from its highs in 2007 GOOG shares are still DOWN 3% after peaking in the same year. We believe GOOG’s fortunes are in the process of changing as is the market’s perception of…
Long Gold / Short Equities Has Been a Generational Trade That Will Likely Continue
Since 1999 the ratio of the SPX vs. gold has declined 85%. That’s +485 bps annualized for somebody who was short the index and long gold the entire time. In the end, the logic for this trade remains quite simple:…