Russell 2000 Forming a Classicly Bullish Technical Pattern That Should be Resolved with Higher Prices
The Russell 2000 is forming a classicly bullish cup & handle pattern in the chart below. We typically hesitate to talk about technical patterns like these as we believe they are the purview of bloggers/market practitioners that use only technicals…
Semis Likely Have More Relative & Absolute Downside Remaining
The chart below plots the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX. Note the ratio doesn’t reach intermediate-term support region (A) until ~3% lower. More material support doesn’t come into play until line (1), some ~15% lower. Additionally, the 52 week…...
Revisiting Our Cycle Work Dating Back to 1896 for Perspective on the Rally off the March 2009 Lows
For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...
As a Group, Coal Appears to be Breaking Out & Could Continue to Out-Perform
For some background on our thoughts on coal, please see these previous posts here and here. Since our original post on the group all the way back on August 9th, the DJ Coal Index has risen 22% vs. only a…
Defining Alpha, FXI Has Out-Performed the SPX by 700+ bps Since We Suggested as Much a Month Ago
On September 7th we had a post detailing our thoughts on FXI and our belief that domestically listed Chinese equities were about to begin a period of out-performance vs. the SPX. In that post we specifically noted the following: “A long…...
Should South African Strikes be Resolved, Platinum Prices will Likely Suffer
The chart below reflects the fact that the recent rally in platinum prices, driven largely by South African mining work stoppages and strikes, has taken the metal up to falling resistance dating back to 2008. At the same time commercial…
Where are the Most Appropriate Places to be Levered & Long in Anticipation of a Cycle Bottom?
What I’ve attempted to do here is put together the easiest, yet most robust macro tool that I could fathom, that each of you can use in the future if for some reason(s) our working relationship end. In its simplest…...
On a Relative Basis, Gold Miners Face Resistance
The chart below plots the ratio of Arca Gold Miners Index vs. the SPX. From 2001 to August 2011, the ratio rose to 1.60 from ~0.15. This means gold miners as a group out-performed the SPX by a factor of…
1986-1989 = 2010-2013?
I wanted to officially catalog this comparison on the site instead of just communicating about it via email and also provide some granular detail on where the market may decline to. As you all know, it seems like the parallel…...
Are Market Internals Weakening?
The chart below plots the SPX along with the ratio of NYSE advancing issues vs. total issues. As you can see in region (A), the ratio has put in a succession of lower highs and lower lows over the past…