This Sleepy Industry Could Begin to Out-Perform
The ratio of the DJ Electricity Index vs. SPX is plotted below. The ratio appears to have broken out from a bullish descending wedge pattern last week. A similar pattern formed b/t 2000-2004. When it completed and broke out, the…...
Isn’t the USD Supposed to Drive PMs?
A few weeks back we plotted the Yen against various PMs in this post and suggested the latter had to “catch down” to the former given 1) they have tended to act as leading indicators for one another’s fair value, with…
Copper’s Technicals
A few weeks back when the metal stood at ~$3.50 we had a post on copper noting its technicals looked reasonably weak and if our read was correct, it had the potential to fall to ~$2. We update that technical set-up…...
Evolving Thoughts on How PMs Might Work into the Overall Macro Framework
Here’s a chart originally shown the other day comparing silver’s move from 1967-1973 vs. 2010-2014. The two share a good deal of similarity. If the pattern recognition is correct, silver might presumably begin to base in the $19-$20 area in the next few weeks,…...
How Bearish is Gold Sentiment?
Not all that bearish, at least in the context of history, when gold is in a bear market, according to SentimenTrader. In other words, public opinion can sour much further than it already has, and stay that way, when the…
Relative Out-Performance Opportunity in this Industry
I like mobile telcom and telco equipment. Look at all the charts below. The first two are the DJ US Mobile Telcom Index and the ratio of that index vs. the SPX. Both have broken out. Next, look at the…...
Rite Aid up 35% in Two Months
On February 7th we had a post on RAD noting it was working on a break-out of 15 year resistance. We also noted the stock’s industry group had favorable technical appearances as well. We suggested the following in the post…
Where do Gold Miners Stand after All the Carnage in PMs?
Wanted to update my thoughts on gold miners after precious metals have been absolutely annihilated lately. As you might remember we have been short and/or avoiding this group for a very long time dating back to posts like this and this when…...
Updated Silver Analog
Updated to reflect prices at ~$26.15 this week. One word – kaboom. Likely headed much lower to that aforementioned $13-$18 range....
Shiller P/E Suggests Any Additional Valuation Expansion Engineered by Fed Could Result in a Parabolic Move Higher for Equities
In the chart below note that the Shiller P/E currently stands at a line of demarcation. Historically, any further expansion in SPX valuations has coincided with parabolic moves higher and/or bubbles including the late 20s, mid 90s and the 2002-2007 global…...