Euro Approaching L-T Support, Reaction Will Have Material Implications for Future Trajectory of Inflation/Deflation Thematic
As I look back on the site in recent weeks/months it seems clear that the work has begun to shift toward the thematic of a deflation/inflation debate. Or, more specifically, the site’s thematic increasingly seems to reveal a world lurching, at accelerating…...
What are the Implications of the SPX Finally Correcting >10% in August After Nearly Three Years of Uninterrupted Upside?
In May-14 I discussed here that the magnitude and duration of the SPX rally off its 10/3/11 low w/o a 10% correction was turning into one of history’s biggest such moves. In a follow-up post on the same topic in Oct-15 after it had…...
The Fed Plans to Hike Rates as it Fails at Its Price Stability Mandate; Gold Should Soon Begin Rising as a Result
Along the lines of our post two days ago re: the St. Louis Fed’s new deflation indicator, below we present a similar indicator that tracks the same institution’s estimate of the Fed hitting its mandated 2.0% (i.e., midpoint of 1.5%-2.5%) inflation…...
Time to Buy WMT after Recent Downside
In the chart below WMT sits atop ~17-yr support line (1) after having witnessed a fair degree of intense selling YTD, with that downside accelerating in the past few weeks. The same selling has also brought it back down to…...
CRB Threatening to Break 40-Year Support as Deflation Risks Reach Great Recession Levels
A very simple, weekly long-term chart of the CRB Index is presented below. As you can see, the index’s significant decline over the past year has taken it down to line (1) support. This support dates back 40 years and represents…...
Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?
I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post. It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...
War Machine
Somebody is going to have to fire up the war machine to prevent deflation (crude) from accelerating (declining) in the near-term. Absent that, dramatic, near-term cuts in global oil output are needed. Per the below, the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main…...
1937 (May I Have Another?)
The comparisons b/t 1937 and modern-day, as worn out as they’ve become since originating as far back as 2010, have never been more striking, both fundamentally as a DEC rate hike becomes a lock and chart-wise as follows: If the…...
History Suggests 2015’s Volatility Is Just another Mid-Cycle Pause
This week I spent some time updating a master market data spreadsheet I maintain that largely consists of Shiller’s historical data. In doing so I noticed that as of Feb of this year, the SPX closed 31% > its 48…...
Airline Outperformance vs. Railroads to Continue, Accelerate
This post is a spread trade dedicated to two components of the DJ Transportation Index. In the chart below the ratio of the DJ Railroad Index vs. the DJ Airline Index is breaking below key, long-term support lines (1)-(3). Given…...