Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013
Beginning with this piece from July 2013 in which we juxtaposed our bullish view on the prospects for Chinese equities with Barron’s call for an imminent credit crisis there, I’d like to believe my work on the region in recent times has…...
4/30 or 5/21?
The BoJ has upcoming monetary policy meetings/announcements as follows. I consider the latter schedule very important v-a-v our ongoing assessment of the Nikkei’s progress relative to our 6 mo RoC framework. Specifically, I find the 4/30 and 5/21 policy dates…...
Romney was Right About Everything – Bracketology Edition
If anybody watched the 2012 presidential debates they’ll remember the laps Romney ran around Obama as well as his prescience on many geopolitical items that have since come to fruition (the likelihood of Russian aggression , for instance, an idea Obama condescendingly mocked…
U.S. Equity VOL Set to Decline
In the chart below VIX futures are breaking down from a ~one-year flag pattern formed b/t lines (1) and (2) on a daily basis. Presumably, this implies U.S.-based equity VOL is set to fall over the near to intermediate-term. At…...
Pivot Point Analog Update
We originally added our Nikkei pivot point logic to our overall framework of analyzing the index in early December of last year in this post. Thus far, the path the Nikkei has traveled following its 10/17/14 pivot point low print of…...
4 Years of Biotech Relative Outperformance Appears to Have Run its Course
We’ve been bullish on biotech for a long, long time dating back to summer 2012 in posts outlined here and here. Despite many calling for tops in the space for quite some time, I’ve been reticent to do so, outlining…...
Something Amiss in Gold
This past weekend I pieced together this global macro & cycle post and in it, called out gold as one of a few commodities (along with crude) that appeared to have begun a renewed phase of downside. Specifically, I cited gold…...
Europe Relative Strength Worth Monitoring
In our 2015 working thesis post we highlighted the interesting technical set-up in Europe. Specifically, we highlighted this ratio chart of the STOXX600 vs. SPX which was sitting on 25-yr channel support at the time and suggested if ever Europe had…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...
Angelic
In the chart below HALO is caught in an interesting looking ascending triangle pattern of sorts b/t lines (1) and (2). This pattern has been developing for a decade and reminds me an awful lot of the same patterns that…...