SHCOMP & CNY: 1993-1994 = 2015-2016?
Much has been made about China’s need to devalue its currency vs. USD over the past year since the country abruptly nudged it immaterially lower in Aug-15. I honestly have no strong opinion or edge re: likelihood that this does or…
Silver Upside Could Accelerate in the Near-Term
On 4/19 I outlined a simple techincal break-out for silver and suggested it could be the start of a major rally. I followed that up a week later on 4/27 with a post that showed how the ratio of gold vs. silver was breaking…...
Is that Something You Might Be Interested In?
Any former Entourage fan (we’re talking “deep cuts” fan) will remember the character of Bob Ryan, aka “What if I was to tell you…is that something you might be interested in?” Bob Ryan. For the unacquainted, Bob was best known…...
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top?)
“Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” — Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged As intensely volatile – and often times scary – as the…
Heading into BREXIT 2.0, Is US Long Bond Analogous to GBP in 3Q92?
In a few recent posts I’ve highlighted that the discussions around BREXIT 2.0/ERM2 are occurring as the ratio of the Stoxx600 vs. SPX hits channel support for only the second time in history (on a monthly basis vs. three times on a daily)…....
Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote
Here’s a plot of the ratio b/t UK and US-based equity VOL. It’s printing all-time highs at the moment, well above previous highs. In the past, spikes to similar, yet slightly lower highs, have tended to approximate near-term capitulation lows…...
All the Macro that’s Fit to Print
Every corner rounded seems to be producing a different chimera to be contended with at the moment. BREXIT, growing portions of sovereign debt lurching into negative-yield territory, NIRP chaos and its impact on Euro banks, China deval/credit collapse, Islamo-fascism, Fed tightening and…...
The DAX Bear Rolls On
Here’s an update to the analog first presented in this post whereby we compared the DAX off its Apr-15 highs to the bear paths it took during its 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 bears. The current path (black) is updated to reflect…...