Multi-Decade Break-outs in Gold vs. Various Industrial Commodities Signals Major Monetary System Change Afoot
Proportional end demand by the industrial sector is exceedingly larger for crude (all), copper (all) and silver (~50%) vs. gold (~10%-15%). Keep the above in mind when looking at the three charts below which plot ratios of gold vs. all three aforementioned…...
Should History Hold, USDMXN at Multi-Decade Channel Resistance Signals Potential for Pivot Higher in Risk Assets, Inflation
In the first chart below I show USDMXN (USD vs. Peso). For nearly two decades back to the latter part of the 90s USDMXN has traveled in an upward-sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2). Over time it has reached…...
This Industrial Company’s Break-Out from Two Years of Consolidation is Bullish, but Also Signals the Potential for a Similar Move in Broader Equities
In the chart below ITW has, as of today (if gains hold), officially broken out from a ~two-year consolidation/flag pattern b/t lines (1a) and (2a). The stock should be bought on this break-out. However, at the same time, note how…...
Gold’s 99.8th Percentile Event Last Week Confirms New, Sustained Bull Market
On 12/17/15 in this post we began stressing the likelihood of a new, emerging macro thematic positing the likelihood of a favorable divergence in gold-specific fortunes vs. other commodities moving forward. At the time of that original post the ratio of gold vs…....
SPX Technicals Suggest Fair Value of ~1,400
Perhaps the simplest, yet most elegant way to think about fair value for the SPX is to view it through the prism of the long-term technical chart below. In that chart you’ll notice the index has traded in an upward sloping…...
GREXIT
If one recalls, one of the first-ever posts on this site provided a framework of what would likely happen to Greek stocks and the Drachma were the country to exit the EU. It’s been nearly four years since that post and Greece has…...
A Look at Gold Miners
I’ve relentlessly made the case for gold on this site over the past year or so, believing a major bottom was approaching. Less focus has been placed on the miners, but it’s worth visiting that group as the rally they’ve…...
Gold’s Moment of Clarity
I believe the work I’ve done on gold over the past year is arguably the best I’ve ever done on this site, both in terms of quality and how comprehensive it’s been. I stand by that even should the conclusions from…...
TED Spreads Back on the Rise
I spent a good deal of the site’s Dec-15 real estate focusing on TED spreads, particularly the latter half of that month, and their rapid ramp higher as we exited 2015. In each of those Dec-15 posts I strenuously emphasized that…...
MSFT Attractive vs. AAPL
I’ve beat the tune of the bullish MSFT drums on this site dating back to 2013. Most recently I suggested a spread trade b/t it on the long side and an INTC short on 1/9/16 in this post using this…...