Symmetry in Palladium’s Secular Cycles
Below I analog two separate palladium secular cycles, one from 1980-2001 and the other from 2001-current. Note the high degree of historical symmetry b/t these two cycles. At the moment, palladium is clearing its 2001 secular highs at the 100%…...
Historically Oversold Gold
Gold peaked a little over seven years ago in Apr-11. If we construct a simple 7-yr RoC chart below we find that as of Aug-18’s swing low, that RoC stood at -34%, tied with Mar-01’s level and slightly better than -39%…...
Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes
As of month-end Sep-18, the USD (via DXY) had appreciated 21% over the trailing seven years while the ratio of EM equities vs. the SPX had declined 54% (seven years ago is where USD bottoms, commodities and EM/SPX generally peak). This…...
USD-Deval Thesis Rounding into View
Recall my early Sep-18 post on the DXY index as background to this post. Specifically, I want to revisit DXY’s comparison to crude in the 1980s/1990s, first outlined in this chart. Below I have updated the pairing. This time I…...
Where’s Waldo?
In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...
NYSE Margin Debt Levels Historically Elevated
Below I plot the ratio of NYSE margin debt / NYSE equity market cap back to the early 1930s. Data is sourced from GFD. As global equities peaked in Jan/Feb-18 the ratio hit 2.9%, a ~90-yr high not seen since…...
Chinese-Inspired Red October?
The ratio of gold vs. CNYUSD has coiled up into what appears to be a bullish pattern in the chart below, with numerous bullish RSI deviations even as price has pushed lower over the past 18 months. This means one…...
*If* Gold Miners Have Bottomed…
…this is how we might expect them to trade in their first year per rallies off secular lows in 1932, 1971 and 2000. The black plot is off the 8/18/18 low. Recall that data is FTSE-JSE Gold Miner Index in USD-terms. …...