An Enduring Love Affair
My historical penchant for an undying love toward TIVO, both its chart pattern and fundamentals, has been well documented on this site. However, having first identified it on the site almost two years ago with nothing but a torpid, relentlessly weak stock…...
Cap-Weighted (Topix), Not Price (Nikkei), to Lead way in Japan
Moving forward, I believe various market-cap weighted Topix indexes will out-perform the price-weighted Nikkei. As such, in an ideal world we’d own the Topix. However, that brings with it complexities. For one, there is no liquid USD-denominated domestic product to express this…...
Japan Update
The BoJ releases its latest monetary policy decision/statement tonight. There has been recent chatter that the BoJ, or at least a small minority of its members, are growing uneasy about Yen weakness and the pressure that is putting on consumers purchasing…...
Copper May Still be the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
One of the first ever posts I put on the site re: the Nikkei was this one where it was suggested that 2012 for the index was analogous to circa 2002 for gold, with the point being the former was…...
New Analysis, Same Conclusion: Nikkei Preparing for Imminent & Large Pivot Higher
Over the past year or so I’ve talked a lot before about where I’ve broadly considered our placement within this “super cycle” of sorts that began in 2009. I’ve generally thought that most of the work implied that placement was…...
Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Nikkei Beginning Phase #2?
Have been expecting some type of stepped up short-term Nikkei weakness/VOL for weeks now in and around this price level. It’s failed to materialize. In fact, based on the 60 min chart below, the Nikkei appears to have decisively broken…...
More Evidence Suggesting Nikkei en Route to Massive Additional Gains in Compressed Period of Time
The 6 month RoC > 65% framework, as it pertains to our Nikkei view, is not a new concept if you frequent this site. Over time, we’ve added new layers of analysis to that framework that have made it more…...
Yet Another Layer of Analysis for Our Nikkei Framework
I wanted to add yet another layer of analysis to our ongoing Nikkei work which continues to suggest the potential for material upside in the index moving forward. If you recall, the last layer of analysis we added in building…...
Different Analyses, Simpatico Conclusions
As of today the SPX is +800 bps YTD. That’s very impressive and even more so considering an up 2014 would represent the index’s 6th consecutive annual gain dating back to 2009. As you undoubtedly know by now given we have…...