CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign

CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign

The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...

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Gold, Rarely a Rush: Part 2

Gold, Rarely a Rush: Part 2

For more than a year now we’ve made a concerted effort to continuously revisit the ideas that PMs, especially gold, had more ultimate upside left in a major structural bull cycle despite the fact that cyclically speaking, they had been in…...

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If a Sustained Bull is Underway for PMs Gold Could Plausibly Reach $8K+

If a Sustained Bull is Underway for PMs Gold Could Plausibly Reach $8K+

In the recent past we’ve used posts such as this and this to highlight later-1976 as a potential corollary to where gold stands today v-a-v its current cycle placement.  Yesterday we drilled into the USD’s set-up and found what appears to be strong…...

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PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance

PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance

In the chart below take note of the simple fact that the DXY index (USD) appears poised to break down from a consolidation/flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) through much of 2015 at inset (A) while at inset (B), it is…...

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Silver Potentially on the Cusp of an Explosive Move Higher

Silver Potentially on the Cusp of an Explosive Move Higher

In the chart below I show bullish descending wedge patterns in silver across history at (A) and (B). Pattern (A) begins at a major structural peak in 1982 and lasts ~four years, completing itself with a bullish break-out in late…...

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30s10s Curve Steepener a Prelude to Higher Gold Prices

30s10s Curve Steepener a Prelude to Higher Gold Prices

In the chart below I’ve plotted the ratio b/t the yield on 30 (TYX) and 10 (TNX) year treasuries over time.  The ratio is simply another way to look at the bps spread diff b/t the two. Note that at each…...

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How's It Going Down?

How’s It Going Down?

As I ponder where the world stands from a macro/market cycle standpoint I’m reminded of one of my favorite rappers in the halcyon years of being a teenager in rural Corry, PA, DMX, and the best track that came off his debut album, It’s…...

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$1177 & Why Gold Has Proven Nothing Yet

$1177 & Why Gold Has Proven Nothing Yet

The #’d title in this post refers to gold’s 12 mo MA. In our recent PM work we’ve suggested the current set-up in gold most resembles its set-up in 1976, 1982 and 1984 into major cyclical or structural lows.  That…...

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Short Cattle

Short Cattle

I’ve been monitoring what I’ve viewed as a bearish set-up in cattle futures for the past few weeks. Specifically, the material rally they’ve had in recent years ultimately appears to have resulted in a blow-off top in June. Subsequent to this peak…...

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Gold Inching Ever Closer into what Will Likely Be a Major, Multi-Year Low

Gold Inching Ever Closer into what Will Likely Be a Major, Multi-Year Low

We’ve been through PMs fairly extensively as of late (this is our third on the topic in a month vs. eight total in the previous two years).  Our most recent work on the space has generally been time-focused.  Specifically, we’ve…