
Repeating Pattern in Silver
In the chart below I present silver, inverted, on a monthly basis. I inverted the chart to mess your head up. By doing so, you can’t look at it with the preconceived notions and biases you already had; it’s nearly…...

Recent Carnage in Grains Historically Indicative of Sustained, Multi-Year Commodity Bear Markets
Historically, three-day declines of at least 13% in corn as we’ve just witnessed with today’s decline, are indicative of: 1) multi-year corn bear markets 2) multi-year commodity bear-markets per the CRB Commodities are in a bear market and are likely…...

FX Drives Everything
Want to use this post to reiterate the following: Over-weight sectors/industries that under-performed over the past decade Under-weight sectors/industries/that out-performed over the past decade The latter is most applicable to those sectors/industries heavily impacted, one way or the other, by…...

Updated Thoughts on Coffee
As a refresher, here’s some background on our evolving coffee thesis, as well as right here. Though the set-up has been somewhat technically appealing at times, we’ve correctly remained on the sidelines/bearish and have watched the product’s price decline ~20%…...

Copper to $2?
In the chart below copper appears to be breaking down from a multi-year flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) this week. Line (2) represents the top end of what appears to be a historical channel, with line (3)…

Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?
I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...

What’s Green Today (Nat Gas a Safe Haven)?
Safe havens – gold, USD, Yen and U.S. bonds. Strangely enough though, so is Nat Gas. In fact, it’s the greenest thing on the screen. Coincidence when we find that in Cyrpus the government has promised to repay savers enduring…

What to Do with Cotton?
Had this post on cotton back in July which I thought was a quality piece of work. Bought a little back then, but not much as we planned on getting it bigger at 60, which was a price it failed…...