Thoughts on NZD

Thoughts on NZD

In the chart below the NZD and gold have tended to trade in a highly correlated manner for the past few years. More often than not, NZD has acted as a leading indicator for gold, moving north/south before gold does…...

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Repeating Pattern in Silver

Repeating Pattern in Silver

In the chart below I present silver, inverted, on a monthly basis. I inverted the chart to mess your head up. By doing so, you can’t look at it with the preconceived notions and biases you already had; it’s nearly…...

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Recent Carnage in Grains Historically Indicative of Sustained, Multi-Year Commodity Bear Markets

Recent Carnage in Grains Historically Indicative of Sustained, Multi-Year Commodity Bear Markets

Historically, three-day declines of at least 13% in corn as we’ve just witnessed with today’s decline, are indicative of: 1) multi-year corn bear markets 2) multi-year commodity bear-markets per the CRB Commodities are in a bear market and are likely…...

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FX Drives Everything

FX Drives Everything

Want to use this post to reiterate the following: Over-weight sectors/industries that under-performed over the past decade Under-weight sectors/industries/that out-performed over the past decade The latter is most applicable to those sectors/industries heavily impacted, one way or the other, by…...

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Thoughts on the Two-Year Consolidation in Precious Metals

Thoughts on the Two-Year Consolidation in Precious Metals

Remember our alternate way of thinking about silver we presented a few weeks back? That post is right here. In it, we suggested the potential for additional upside in the metal and that the highs from April 2011 were not…...

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Updated Thoughts on Coffee

Updated Thoughts on Coffee

As a refresher, here’s some background on our evolving coffee thesis, as well as right here. Though the set-up has been somewhat technically appealing at times, we’ve correctly remained on the sidelines/bearish and have watched the product’s price decline ~20%…...

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Copper to $2?

Copper to $2?

In the chart below copper appears to be breaking down from a multi-year flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) this week. Line (2) represents the top end of what appears to be a historical channel, with line (3)…

Is Copper the Nikkei's Rosetta Stone?

Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?

I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...

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What's Green Today (Nat Gas a Safe Haven)?

What’s Green Today (Nat Gas a Safe Haven)?

Safe havens – gold, USD, Yen and U.S. bonds. Strangely enough though, so is Nat Gas.  In fact, it’s the greenest thing on the screen. Coincidence when we find that in Cyrpus the government has promised to repay savers enduring…

What to Do with Cotton?

What to Do with Cotton?

Had this post on cotton back in July which I thought was a quality piece of work. Bought a little back then, but not much as we planned on getting it bigger at 60, which was a price it failed…...

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