As Suggested in October, Coffee Could Continue to Disappoint Long Positions Over the Intermediate-Term
In early October when coffee stood at ~160+ we had a rather detailed post explaining why we thought it would continue to disappoint longs over the intermediate-term, despite the fact that it had sold off materially already and commercial players had…...
Consolidation Patterns in Gold & Silver Appear to be Ending
Both gold and silver find themselves caught in consolidation/flag patterns in the chart below, formed by their respective lines (1) and (2). Both currently sit on line (2) support. We aren’t suggesting which direction they’re apt to turn in next…
Grains Down Double Digits in a Few Months, Now What?
Here was our original post on grains back in September. In that post we suggested being short some combo of soybeans, wheat and corn. All are down double-digits or are close to being down that much since the post. In…...
Working Thesis for 2013
Let’s just get this out of the way right up front – I was completely,unequivocally wrong to pivot to the “not-bullish / mildly bearish” camp late last week. I think it’s quite clear that the combination of Monday’s ~25 pt…
More on the USD and Related Assets
Anybody find it ironic that the USD suggests the following… While the silver analog suggests this…? and the AMEX Gold Bugs Index is doing this…?...
Growth Stock Working on a Break-Out
The chart below shows SODA on a daily HLC basis and with an inset showing weekly closing values. Not a ton of trading history to this recent IPO in 2010, but both seem to suggest the stock is close to…...
Updated Thoughts on Silver
It appears as if silver might break line (1) support in the chart below. If so, the post bubble analog suggests it could fall hard and fast. In this event, the most likely target would be ~$26-$28 at line (2A)…...
Spread Trade Opportunity in Basic Materials
Long FCX against a copper short, but not yet. In the chart below I plot the ratio of FCX vs. copper. If the ratio is able to trade down to ~0.073 from its current ~0.088, or by ~17%, it will…...
Where Next For Interest Rates?
First off, we plot the 10 year interest rate below. Very nice and tight consolidation pattern that’s taken place along lines (1)-(3) that looks very close to ending. A break above line (1) and rates could shoot aggressively higher over…...
Euro Approaching Resistance
In the chart below the Euro is very close to reaching resistance line (1) which has been in place since April/May 2011 as global risk assets first began topping out in front of the summer/fall mini-crash in the SPX. Using…