Recent Nikkei Price Action Rare in Context of Nearly 120 Years of Dow Trading History
The Nikkei gained 19.3% in 1Q13. Impressive, no doubt. How impressive? Since the late 1890s the Dow has had only 11 quarters where it’s gained at least 19%, making such occurrences a 2.4/100 event. I present those instances in the…...
Additional Historical Data to Clarify Cycle Type & Location
Last week SentimenTrader had a nice little piece detailing other periods in history where the SPX had gone at least five years before registering a new 10-year high as it did on Thursday. Thursday’s signal was the fourth in history…....
Equity Analog Update
Was reasonably confident, per the analog below, we’d get a quick, ~400 bps correction into ~14K on the Dow sometime in the past week or two. Increasingly, that appears unlikely. If it doesn’t happen, there’s a good chance the Dow…...
Though Such an Outcome May Not Be Imminent, Evidence Supporting Another 1929, 1937 or 1987-Style Event is Becoming Robust
As of 3/14 last week the Dow had been up 10 consecutive days. Dating back to the late 1800s there have been 35 such runs, including the most recent. In reality, the signal has only come 13x originally speaking as…...
Is James Glassman Really That Crazy, Why the Dow Potentially Has 60%-170% More Upside & Why Contrary to Michael Moore’s Views, Markets & Capitalism Worked Better Than Ever in Facilitating the Sub-Prime Crisis
Does anybody remember James Glassman? He’s that crazy guy who published this book in 1999 claiming the Dow would eclipse the 36K mark in ~three-five years. Turns out his earlier prediction wasn’t so correct. That doesn’t mean the guy doesn’t…
Quick Global Macro Overview
The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...
Equity Analog Update
You’ve all seen this a thousand times by now. That said, it’s something, given its uncanny and ongoing similarities, we want to continuously and frequently refresh. Regardless, we present the Dow’s rally from 1988/1989 and its comparison to the path…...
The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)
Let’s continue to beat a dead horse. Is gold a bubble? If so, did the bubble run end in September 2011 when gold peaked around ~$1,900? We know that thus far, if gold was a bubble and the run ended…...
Equity Analog Update
Figured I would simply dump and update all the various equity analog sets we’ve been using for the past 6-9 months in one post so that collectively, they could paint a broad picture of the macro landscape. 4th & 5th…...
Dow Going to 17K Before 2013 is Up?
Look at the analog below. The black line is the Dow, 2012-2013YTD. We refrain from revealing what the red line is and why it makes sense to compare it to the black one. However, do they get more compelling than…