Global Macro Round-Up
FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue. USDCNY is currently testing…...
Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture
Below a simple chart: the ratio of the MSCI EM Index vs. SPX. In it you can see the ratio nearing a critical, 20-yr support line last reached in Sep-01 at a major corrective low (specifically the post 9/11 low)…...
EM Equities: 2007’s Secular High In Sight
I last updated our ongoing secular bear market analog framework for EM equities ~four months ago in this “Macro Round-Up” post, but as a refresher, first introduced it in this Jan-17 post. There were five central conclusions outlined in the original piece: EM began…...
EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?
The MSCI EM Index (MXEF) is approaching historical resistance dating back to its 2007 highs on a monthly closing basis below. On a weekly closing basis the set-up is similar, though the index has some remaining upside left. In the…...
EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings
Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300. Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high. Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...