Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?
I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post. It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...
1937 (May I Have Another?)
The comparisons b/t 1937 and modern-day, as worn out as they’ve become since originating as far back as 2010, have never been more striking, both fundamentally as a DEC rate hike becomes a lock and chart-wise as follows: If the…...
History Suggests 2015’s Volatility Is Just another Mid-Cycle Pause
This week I spent some time updating a master market data spreadsheet I maintain that largely consists of Shiller’s historical data. In doing so I noticed that as of Feb of this year, the SPX closed 31% > its 48…...
Potential Cyclical High In Place for SPX Relative to Crude
The chart below shows the long-term ratio of the SPX vs. crude. The pattern is well-defined in that it develops a large left shoulder over the course of 1985-1997 (SPX out-performance), followed by a distinct head from 1997-2000 (acceleration of…...
SPX Close > 2,050 in October Would Be Bullish: Part 2
Last week we put some work together detailing why a close above 2,050 for the SPX in October would be bullish for forward returns across six months and up to a year. That logic was straightforward enough that we won’t recapitulate…...
1998 Redux for Crude?
In these two posts here and here we discussed 1998 as a potential outcome to Aug/Sep’s global VOL in equities whereby strong pivots higher could result in additional, sustained upside to the long-term bull cycle that’s been intact since 2009 (or…...
Duration & Size Matter: Part 2 (And Why the Revenant May Truly be Dead)
Nearly 18 months ago, on 5/9/14, we noted the SPX had gone 652 days and had rallied 72% without at least a 10% correction, with that stretch dating back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. We went on to note…...
SPX Close > 2,050 in October Would be Bullish
As of today 2,050 is the SPX’s 12 mo MA. August’s sell-off and September’s continuing remnants of VOL from the previous month resulted in the SPX closing below its 12 mo MA for those two consecutive months after having closed…...
CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign
The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...
Gold, Rarely a Rush: Part 2
For more than a year now we’ve made a concerted effort to continuously revisit the ideas that PMs, especially gold, had more ultimate upside left in a major structural bull cycle despite the fact that cyclically speaking, they had been in…...