Multi-Month Consolidation Patterns Set to End in these Macro Assets
The Japanese Yen is at an important juncture. We’ve been writing about this macro asset as far back as June 2012 and the likelihood that it was entering a period of sustained wekaness (and as a result, the Nikkei sustained strength)…....
Additional Details to Build on Yesterday’s Cycle Analysis Post
Yesterday we updated a cycle analysis post originally conducted in mid-August 2012. While the original post from mid-August 2012 suggested the DJIA would be up with 91% probability one year forward (i.e., into mid-August 2013) with a sizable median expected…...
Revisiting Last Year’s Analysis that Foresaw the Rally of 2013 and What it Says about the Future
One of the better pieces of analytical work I’ve done on this site since launching it is this piece from last August. That analysis showed that during 2Q12 the DJIA’s weekly YoY went to >20% in a quarter after being…...
Obscure Measure of Market Internals Pointing to a “Bull Treat”?
I’d like to think nobody has ever considered using the RSI of the ratio of XLP vs. SPX to gauge market internals and overall macro risk before. As far as I know, I’ve never seen anybody use or write about…...
Framework for Assessing Progress of Late June’s Pivot Low in Chinese Equities
On 7/2 we had a post suggesting Chinese equities, in contrast to Barron’s call for a renewed crash/credit crisis, were likely nearing a major low. That call was based on a very simple (and thus elegant) analysis that showed the…...
Analog Update
Toward the end of last year and for the entirety of this year, our framework for thinking about 2013 has been as follows: 2012 marked a 4th consecutive annual gain for the market (Dow); historically that had happened only six previous times…...
Recent Decline in Rates to Continue Near-Term but Likely to Reverse over Time
Dating back to July of last year I’ve advocated the idea that bond yields were nearing the end days of their secular move lower. Beginning in May of this year we explicitly began to communicate the precise end of that…...
Silver’s Current Decline in the Context of Our Longer-Term Thesis
Amazingly, given all the commentary we’ve had on silver via email and phone conversations, there hasn’t been an official updated post on the PM since April. Most, if not all of the reason for this, is the fact that my…...
Analog Update
The SPX has rallied to 1,680 today, reaching our upside price target objective, which was the 61.8% retracement level formed b/t the 8/5 highs and 8/28 lows, respectively. Though it has crept above this level somewhat, this isn’t all that…...
Arabica Update
Per the chart below, coffee remains caught in a bullish, descending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). It appears to be pressing the top of that pattern’s resistance at line (1), suggesting a break-out may be nigh. Additionally, the…...