Emergence of Solid Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei's Amazing Run

Emergence of Solid Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Amazing Run

We’ve spent the better portion of the past few weeks focused almost entirely on the Nikkei in an attempt to better understand what’s going on with its current price action in the context of similarly positive episodes throughout the Dow’s…...

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Has the Nikkei Begun a New Secular Bull Market?

Has the Nikkei Begun a New Secular Bull Market?

Before you read this post, please take a moment to read this one first, our earliest Nikkei post on the site, as I believe it was likely our first on this subject. I’m pointing it out not to congratulate myself…...

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The Nikkei's Price Action Continues to Offer a Veritable Gold Mine of Historical Informational Content

The Nikkei’s Price Action Continues to Offer a Veritable Gold Mine of Historical Informational Content

One of the things we have increasingly struggled with is that the Nikkei’s recent price action continues to statistically align with periods of instability and downside in the Dow. Just yesterday we had a post here pointing out as much,…...

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Could Yen Weakness & Nikkei Strength Continue Unabated?  If so, How Long and to What Degree?

Could Yen Weakness & Nikkei Strength Continue Unabated? If so, How Long and to What Degree?

No crappy editorials on how bad Japan’s economy is and debt this, inflation/deflation that, demographics him, GDP growth her… One chart. The ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei has traveled in this upward channel defined by lines (1) and (2)…...

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The Nikkei's 99.99th Percentile Price Action

The Nikkei’s 99.99th Percentile Price Action

With the Nikkei’s massive move last night it has managed a two-day, +530 bps rally. At the same time, its bull cycle is stretched as the four-year RoC already stands at +44%. In other words, though being deep in the…...

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Recent Nikkei Price Action Rare in Context of Nearly 120 Years of Dow Trading History

Recent Nikkei Price Action Rare in Context of Nearly 120 Years of Dow Trading History

The Nikkei gained 19.3% in 1Q13. Impressive, no doubt. How impressive? Since the late 1890s the Dow has had only 11 quarters where it’s gained at least 19%, making such occurrences a 2.4/100 event. I present those instances in the…...

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Is Copper the Nikkei's Rosetta Stone?

Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?

I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...

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Time to Get Short-Term Bearish on the Nikkei?

Time to Get Short-Term Bearish on the Nikkei?

Color me ridiculous for putting up a post like this (it’s basically the inverse equivalent of a bullish post on a stock that’s down 90% and headed for BK that’s shown no abatement in downside), but whatever. The set-up in…...

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Is it Too Late to Short the Yen?

Is it Too Late to Short the Yen?

Not in my mind. My earlier post today on the Nikkei/Yen showed that their current respective 26 week RoC is as positive/negative (most upper-left) as it’s ever been. As I pointed out, the only time in history where the scatter-plot…...

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Something Major is Afoot in Japan

Something Major is Afoot in Japan

Scatter of 26 week RoC in NKK vs. Yen. Last two weeks red – most upper left print in data set. Other prints in this area of the quadrant were Oct-Dec 95 as NKK was printing 10300-10400 – had ~6-8…...

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