Quick Global Macro Overview

Quick Global Macro Overview

The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...

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The Nikkei's Switch Has Been Flipped to the "On" Position

The Nikkei’s Switch Has Been Flipped to the “On” Position

Our single favorite asset class since starting this site last spring has been equities in general, but more specifically, the Nikkei. For those interested in our ongoing train of thought on why that has been the case, please see these…...

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Nikkei in the Early Stages of a New Secular Bull Market?

Nikkei in the Early Stages of a New Secular Bull Market?

I’ll let the economists debate why or why not Japanese stocks should or should not go up. All I know is that I feel that there is a reasonably compelling price-based justification for viewing the Nikkei’s nearly quarter-century secular bear…...

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The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)

The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)

Let’s continue to beat a dead horse. Is gold a bubble? If so, did the bubble run end in September 2011 when gold peaked around ~$1,900? We know that thus far, if gold was a bubble and the run ended…...

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Why Has the Nikkei Out-Performed the SPX So Much Recently?

Why Has the Nikkei Out-Performed the SPX So Much Recently?

Our view is that the Nikkei has out-performed so much since later 2012 because of a technical set-up that was in place in the chart below. In that set-up the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei hit material long-term resistance…

Up 18% in Less than Two Months, the Nikkei's Ascent to 14K This Year Continues Unabated

Up 18% in Less than Two Months, the Nikkei’s Ascent to 14K This Year Continues Unabated

On December 13th when the index was ~1,700 points lower, we noted in this post that the Nikkei was working on a rather important technical break-out. In that post we suggested the following: “…a break above line (1) would be…

Is This Line Relevant to the Nikkei?

Is This Line Relevant to the Nikkei?

Is line (1) in the chart below relevant to the Nikkei per history? If so, what happens with a sustained break above it, if anything?

Nikkei Tacks on Another ~3% Tonight To its Already Incredible Run; Where's the Next Relevant Resistance?

Nikkei Tacks on Another ~3% Tonight To its Already Incredible Run; Where’s the Next Relevant Resistance?

The Nikkei’s run has been incredible over the past few months. In early June 2012 at the global equity bottom, futures were trading at ~8,225 vs. the current 10,880. That’s a 30% gain in six months. In the chart below…...

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Updated Thoughts on Silver

Updated Thoughts on Silver

It appears as if silver might break line (1) support in the chart below. If so, the post bubble analog suggests it could fall hard and fast. In this event, the most likely target would be ~$26-$28 at line (2A)…...

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Nikkei Working on a Break-Out; Next Up 14K by the End of 2013?

Nikkei Working on a Break-Out; Next Up 14K by the End of 2013?

In the chart below the Nikkei is attempting to break-out from a consolidation flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2), which has been in development since 2008. If a break-out occurs, it could result in materially more upside in…