Where Might U.S. Equities Finally Encounter a Material Pull-Back?
In the chart below the Dow is plotted on a long-term basis. Note that lines (1) and (2) resistance come into play in the ~16,250-16,500 area. I believe line (1) is the most relevant piece of resistance as it runs…...
Another Analog Framework from Which to Assess the Nikkei’s Rise
As of late, in conjunction with the Nikkei breaking above long-term trend-line resistance at ~14K, we began to suggest in this post that the index could make a sprint up to ~17.5K before peaking and then correcting. With the above in…...
Is the Nikkei’s Run of Material Out-Performance vs. Other Global Indices Over or is There More Remaining?
The ratio of the DJ World Stock Index vs. Nikkei is plotted below. It was this ratio, among other things, which helped get us very bullish on the index from an execution standpoint, in 2012, in our humble opinion, well…...
Thoughts on the Nikkei in Real Terms
We’ve had some commentary recently about looking at the Nikkei in real terms. By real we meant taking the nominal value of the Nikkei and dividing by 10 Yr UST yields as a proxy for CPI. 10 Yr UST yields…...
Butter, Meet Hot Knife
Coming into this week the Nikkei faced incredibly important and formidable resistance. As a refresh that resistance included: A falling trend-line off the 1989 and 2007 highs – the most important tops in the index’s history 61.8% Fib retracement resistance,…
Nikkei Faces Critical Resistance, What Would a Break Above Do?
As we’ve said all along, 14K seemed like a likely upside target for the Nikkei this year. Now that we’re there, what do we do? To be honest, we’ve not been sure and have vacillated back/forth b/t a new secular bull beginning…...
Up Nearly 60% in Six Months, Nikkei Has Reached Our 14K Price Target for 2013
We became bullish on the Nikkei as far back as last June at the global equity / EZ-crisis lows and began to increasingly pound the table on that thesis as 2012 wore on as posts here and here suggest. Last December when the…
Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
Reflecting Back on the Nikkei’s Switch Being Flipped to the “On” Position
On January 11th, when the index stood at 10,800, we had a simple, two sentence post that asked two questions in the context of the resistance the Nikkei was facing in the chart we attached to that post: “Is line…
Ratio of Yen vs. AUD Breaking 23-Year Support That’s Been in Place Since the Nikkei’s All-Time 1989 Highs
In the chart below the ratio of the Yen vs. AUD is breaking 23-year support at the inset. This support has been in place since early 1990 immediately succeeding the Nikkei’s all-time highs in December 1989. So, one has to…