Analog Update
Below is a quick update to our recent pivot point analog post on the Nikkei a few weeks ago in which we outlined our belief that the BoJ was unlikely to expand the scope of its QE program at its next…...
Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013
Beginning with this piece from July 2013 in which we juxtaposed our bullish view on the prospects for Chinese equities with Barron’s call for an imminent credit crisis there, I’d like to believe my work on the region in recent times has…...
4/30 or 5/21?
The BoJ has upcoming monetary policy meetings/announcements as follows. I consider the latter schedule very important v-a-v our ongoing assessment of the Nikkei’s progress relative to our 6 mo RoC framework. Specifically, I find the 4/30 and 5/21 policy dates…...
U.S. Equity VOL Set to Decline
In the chart below VIX futures are breaking down from a ~one-year flag pattern formed b/t lines (1) and (2) on a daily basis. Presumably, this implies U.S.-based equity VOL is set to fall over the near to intermediate-term. At…...
Pivot Point Analog Update
We originally added our Nikkei pivot point logic to our overall framework of analyzing the index in early December of last year in this post. Thus far, the path the Nikkei has traveled following its 10/17/14 pivot point low print of…...
Something Amiss in Gold
This past weekend I pieced together this global macro & cycle post and in it, called out gold as one of a few commodities (along with crude) that appeared to have begun a renewed phase of downside. Specifically, I cited gold…...
Europe Relative Strength Worth Monitoring
In our 2015 working thesis post we highlighted the interesting technical set-up in Europe. Specifically, we highlighted this ratio chart of the STOXX600 vs. SPX which was sitting on 25-yr channel support at the time and suggested if ever Europe had…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...
Attempting to Target Location & Magnitude of Upcoming Nikkei-Related Corrections
I thought it would be helpful for position-building to assess when and by how much the Nikkei might correct moving forward, assuming our overall framework and thesis for material additional upside is correct. Making the second assumption that we are…...
Cap-Weighted (Topix), Not Price (Nikkei), to Lead way in Japan
Moving forward, I believe various market-cap weighted Topix indexes will out-perform the price-weighted Nikkei. As such, in an ideal world we’d own the Topix. However, that brings with it complexities. For one, there is no liquid USD-denominated domestic product to express this…...