SPX Technical Update
When we were still communicating work via email, one of the earliest (first?) charts I believe I sent was of the SPX on a daily closing basis back to 2007/2008 where I depicted what I believed to be the index’s…...
PMs Experienced a Crash of Sorts in April, Now What?
I’m not convinced that when an asset experiences a crash/mini-crash-like event as PMs did in April that they immediately bottom and begin a sustained thrust higher like nothing happened. Such technical destruction tends to result in highly volatile bottoming processes…....
Gold at its Most Critical Juncture Since 1999 Secular Lows; About to Begin Out-Performing Again?
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. gold. As of mid 2011 that ratio had declined by ~90% from its 1999 highs, defining the opposing secular bear and bull markets for the SPX and gold, respectively, over…...
This Sleepy Industry Could Begin to Out-Perform
The ratio of the DJ Electricity Index vs. SPX is plotted below. The ratio appears to have broken out from a bullish descending wedge pattern last week. A similar pattern formed b/t 2000-2004. When it completed and broke out, the…...
GE May Provide Excellent Read-Throughs to Future Risk Appetite in the Broader Market
Present the Dow below with a large inset of the ratio of GE vs. the SPX. Note that the ratio of GE vs. SPX has tended to trade in a sideways, cyclical channel since the 1970s as defined by lines…...
Additional Historical Data to Clarify Cycle Type & Location
Last week SentimenTrader had a nice little piece detailing other periods in history where the SPX had gone at least five years before registering a new 10-year high as it did on Thursday. Thursday’s signal was the fourth in history…....
Big Trouble in Little Thailand?
Filtered for a few items this morning on the Thai SET index in Thailand. Weekly close at least 700 bps < weekly high YoY >20% Looking for a massive reversal off a stretched bull cycle. Anybody find other instances interesting…...
Quick Global Macro Overview
The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...
Decade+ Relative Strength Break-Out in This Industry
The first chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ Home Furnishings Index vs. SPX. Note the break-out above falling resistance this past week which had been in place for over a decade and had defined this industry’s inexorable under-performance…...
The Nikkei’s Switch Has Been Flipped to the “On” Position
Our single favorite asset class since starting this site last spring has been equities in general, but more specifically, the Nikkei. For those interested in our ongoing train of thought on why that has been the case, please see these…...