Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09
In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…
Gold Update
In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...
Press Long Semi Bets
A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX. Not a bad relative…
Similar to Semis, Tech In General Now Staging a Significant Long-Term Relative Strength Break-Out
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the DJ Tech Index vs. SPX. For 15 years it’s been stuck in a flag/consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). No more. As of this week it is breaking out…...
Crude Should Begin to Stabilize
Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…
EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth
In top pane of the chart below we see that EEM has completed a bullish inverse H&S pattern recently; in the bottom pane the ratio of EEM vs. SPX just broke out of a ~five-year, steeply descending channel. Thus, consistent with a…...
Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside
The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional…
Tactically, USDZAR Break-Down Favorable for Gold; Strategically, Still Believe 2011 Was Not “The” High for the PM’s Secular Bull Run
After more than a 2x move off its 2011 lows, the USD put in what appeared to be be a fairly pronounced, multi-year (if not secular) peak in Jan-16 against ZAR. Since then, USDZAR has trended lower, consolidating around that…...
Bovespa Break-Out
In the chart below the Brazilian Bovespa is breaking above ~six year channel resistance dating back to 2010(!) on absolute basis in the top pane and is breaking out of a bullish descending wedge vs. the SPX in the lower pane,…...
Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX
In the chart below I plot the SMH semiconductor ETF vs. SPY on a monthly closing basis. Note that it is breaking above line (1) and (2) resistance; line (1) dates back ~16 years and line (2) a decade. This…...