TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed’s Decision to Hike Rates
I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...
USD Peaking vs. Commodities, Gold Breaking Out vs. Commodities
In the chart below note the CRB Index, though well into its breach, at least appears to be bottoming on a relative basis vs. the USD, as the ratio b/t the two reaches ~30 year support. There’s a little bit…...
Despite Massive YTD Run, AMZN Remains Very Compelling; Could Hit $1,000+ Or At Least Out-Perform AAPL Significantly
AMZN has had an amazing run since bottoming at <$300 in early 2015, having ripped ~135% higher in the process. Despite this run, the charts for the stock, both on an absolute basis and relative basis vs. nearly anything else you…
Putting the “Relative” Thinking Cap On
Have been scanning various industries/companies within those industries in recent weeks looking for areas that offer some combo of safety and/or out-performance opportunities “vs.” and “relative” to the SPX. There are a handful of industries that look very good right…...
Repeating Pattern in the Russell 2000 Suggests End of Bull Cycle Upon Us
I believe the R2K has been in the process of completing a major topping pattern since early 2014, per the chart below, that is similar to the tops it put in place in 1997-1998 and 2006-2008. Each of those patterns takes…...
The Impossible Trinity & the Yuan’s “Stress Test”
The WSJ had a piece today on China, alluding to but not explicitly acknowledging its attempt to navigate the impossible trinity. To wit: China guided the yuan to its weakest level in more than four years as the country deals with…...
Transports Have Put in a Major, Secular Peak vs. the Broader Market
In the chart below note that in late Dec-14 the ratio of the DJ Transportation Index vs. SPX hit ~4.40, a level that has historically been consistent with major, secular peaks. Historically, such peaks have resulted in Transports under-performing the…...
Time to Buy WMT after Recent Downside
In the chart below WMT sits atop ~17-yr support line (1) after having witnessed a fair degree of intense selling YTD, with that downside accelerating in the past few weeks. The same selling has also brought it back down to…...
CRB Threatening to Break 40-Year Support as Deflation Risks Reach Great Recession Levels
A very simple, weekly long-term chart of the CRB Index is presented below. As you can see, the index’s significant decline over the past year has taken it down to line (1) support. This support dates back 40 years and represents…...
Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?
I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post. It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...