War Machine
Somebody is going to have to fire up the war machine to prevent deflation (crude) from accelerating (declining) in the near-term. Absent that, dramatic, near-term cuts in global oil output are needed. Per the below, the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main…...
Airline Outperformance vs. Railroads to Continue, Accelerate
This post is a spread trade dedicated to two components of the DJ Transportation Index. In the chart below the ratio of the DJ Railroad Index vs. the DJ Airline Index is breaking below key, long-term support lines (1)-(3). Given…...
Potential Cyclical High In Place for SPX Relative to Crude
The chart below shows the long-term ratio of the SPX vs. crude. The pattern is well-defined in that it develops a large left shoulder over the course of 1985-1997 (SPX out-performance), followed by a distinct head from 1997-2000 (acceleration of…...
This Stock is Successfully Re-Testing a Previous Bullish Break-Out
On 2/23/15 in this post we highlighted the very bullish chart pattern on IPGP and suggested initiating a long in the name. At the time of the latter post we noted the name was over-extended following its break-out from a…...
1998 Redux for Crude?
In these two posts here and here we discussed 1998 as a potential outcome to Aug/Sep’s global VOL in equities whereby strong pivots higher could result in additional, sustained upside to the long-term bull cycle that’s been intact since 2009 (or…...
MCD Hits Key Resistance
There have been some previous questions on MCD re: chart pattern and set-up, so with this morning’s gains, I figured I’d take another look and update my thoughts. In response to previous questions I’ve answered by suggesting the chart looked decent,…...
CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign
The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...
If a Sustained Bull is Underway for PMs Gold Could Plausibly Reach $8K+
In the recent past we’ve used posts such as this and this to highlight later-1976 as a potential corollary to where gold stands today v-a-v its current cycle placement. Yesterday we drilled into the USD’s set-up and found what appears to be strong…...
Absent Incremental QE from B-of-J, USDJPY Threatening a Major, Sustained Move Lower
The USDJPY cross closed above its 12 mo MA for every month beginning with Oct-12 and ending Aug-15. That’s a massive three year up-trend. However, in all of the charts below it’s technicals appear quite bearish and in my view, threaten a…...
PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance
In the chart below take note of the simple fact that the DXY index (USD) appears poised to break down from a consolidation/flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) through much of 2015 at inset (A) while at inset (B), it is…...