As I look back on the site in recent weeks/months it seems clear that the work has begun to shift toward the thematic of a deflation/inflation debate. Or, more specifically, the site’s thematic increasingly seems to reveal a world lurching, at accelerating…...
In May-14 I discussed here that the magnitude and duration of the SPX rally off its 10/3/11 low w/o a 10% correction was turning into one of history’s biggest such moves. In a follow-up post on the same topic in Oct-15 after it had…...
Along the lines of our post two days ago re: the St. Louis Fed’s new deflation indicator, below we present a similar indicator that tracks the same institution’s estimate of the Fed hitting its mandated 2.0% (i.e., midpoint of 1.5%-2.5%) inflation…...
In the chart below WMT sits atop ~17-yr support line (1) after having witnessed a fair degree of intense selling YTD, with that downside accelerating in the past few weeks. The same selling has also brought it back down to…...
A very simple, weekly long-term chart of the CRB Index is presented below. As you can see, the index’s significant decline over the past year has taken it down to line (1) support. This support dates back 40 years and represents…...
I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post. It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...
Somebody is going to have to fire up the war machine to prevent deflation (crude) from accelerating (declining) in the near-term. Absent that, dramatic, near-term cuts in global oil output are needed. Per the below, the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s main…...
The comparisons b/t 1937 and modern-day, as worn out as they’ve become since originating as far back as 2010, have never been more striking, both fundamentally as a DEC rate hike becomes a lock and chart-wise as follows: If the…...
This week I spent some time updating a master market data spreadsheet I maintain that largely consists of Shiller’s historical data. In doing so I noticed that as of Feb of this year, the SPX closed 31% > its 48…...
This post is a spread trade dedicated to two components of the DJ Transportation Index. In the chart below the ratio of the DJ Railroad Index vs. the DJ Airline Index is breaking below key, long-term support lines (1)-(3). Given…...