Broadly speaking, we’ve been bearish and/or neutral on the USD for the past few months. That said, we’ve also tried to stress the idea that it was likely in the process of putting a durable, long-term bottom in and that…
I believe we discussed informally (phone, email, etc.) the possibility that investment services / asset manager-type companies could outperform over the coming months. This thesis and discussion revolved around the following: 1) Potential for a material rally in equities, based…...
Long story short… NAV, SRI and the ratio of NAV vs. CMI all likely have more downside ranging from 5%-25%. NAV likely has 15%-25% more downside. SRI likely has 5% more downside. The ratio of NAV vs. CMI likely has…...
Since October 5th when we suggested the possibility, the ratio of the KBW Regional Banking Index vs. the XLF financial ETF has declined 420 bps! In other words, our suggestion to long the XLF and short regional banks has generated…
The Russell 2000 is forming a classicly bullish cup & handle pattern in the chart below. We typically hesitate to talk about technical patterns like these as we believe they are the purview of bloggers/market practitioners that use only technicals…
The chart below plots the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX. Note the ratio doesn’t reach intermediate-term support region (A) until ~3% lower. More material support doesn’t come into play until line (1), some ~15% lower. Additionally, the 52 week…...
For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...
For some background on our thoughts on coal, please see these previous posts here and here. Since our original post on the group all the way back on August 9th, the DJ Coal Index has risen 22% vs. only a…
On September 7th we had a post detailing our thoughts on FXI and our belief that domestically listed Chinese equities were about to begin a period of out-performance vs. the SPX. In that post we specifically noted the following: “A long…...
The chart below reflects the fact that the recent rally in platinum prices, driven largely by South African mining work stoppages and strikes, has taken the metal up to falling resistance dating back to 2008. At the same time commercial…