Houston, Do we Have a Problem?
Remember this post that had us wildly bullish a few months back given the statistical significance of its conclusions? Well, that analysis went into effect as of the week of 8/17/12, the week we received the signal. As of the…...
Euro Financials Have Beat the SPX by 30% Since Summer, Now What?
The chart below plots the ratio of the DJ Euro Financials Index vs. SPX This ratio has risen by ~30% since this summer after bottoming along line (3). For some background on why Euro-centric has out-performed U.S.-centric in recent months,…...
Trade Idea in Gold Miners
I think it’s time to be short this group. Referring back to this post from July 21, we noted the potential for a repeating pattern in the Arca Gold Miners index. In that post, we noted the index could bounce…...
Euro Approaching Resistance
In the chart below the Euro is very close to reaching resistance line (1) which has been in place since April/May 2011 as global risk assets first began topping out in front of the summer/fall mini-crash in the SPX. Using…
If Silver Was a Bubble and 2011 Marked the Top, This is Where the Second Wave of Selling Likely Begins
It’s been a long time since we’ve done any work on silver or precious metals for that matter. There just haven’t been many interesting technical set-ups to speak of one way or the other. However, that seems to have changed…...
Getting Granular: Equities Cheap vs. Credit?
We plot the path HYG & JNK have traveled against SPY over the past year in the chart below. They have all tended to track together over the past year. Just as equities appeared expensive vs. credit in 2Q12 in front of…
Analog Update
Per my email this morning about only giving this market a day or two worth of leash before giving up and turning structurally bearish, the analogs call for an insane launch higher, basically begining in and around this week. As…...
The SSEC Likely Continues Lower Though Its Irrelevancy Continues to Grow
We’ve been of the opinion that if the SSEC were to continue lower, it would not necessarily be indicative of an imminent global slow-down/recession/equity collapse. That thesis is largely derived from the chart below, which plots the path the SSEC…
CFNAI Suggests the Fed Has Destroyed the Market’s Discounting Mechanism Over Past Decade with Pay-Back Being Increased Volatility
Stepping away from the “only prices matter” meme for a second to highlight some more work on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). Historically, when the rolling 3 month average of this index hits and/or dips below a reading…...
SSEC Finds itself at Another Important Support Zone as FXI Faces Resistance
All the way back on August 27th we noted the SSEC was in the process of breaking below long-term support dating back to 1994. At the time, we noted that while such a break was unlikely to be an incremental…