Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme
In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...
Big Silver Break-Out
Assuming gains hold through week-end, silver is staging a significant break-out from the descending wedge it’s been in since 2011 b/t lines (1) and (2) in the chart below. Further, per the analog on the same chart, notice how similar…...
Encino Man
Here’s a blast from the past for you. On 1/15/14, or over two years ago, we had this highly compelling and very prescient post that emphatically stated in its title: “GREATER THAN 90% PROBABILITY SPX HIGHER IN 2014 WITH A…...
Looking for the Next Break in the Ongoing Chinese Depression
In late December we noted via this post that the SSEC’s crash off its mid-15 highs to-date was very similar-looking to the path the DJI took of its 1929 high to begin the Great Depression. Here’s an updated version of the analog comparing…...
DAX is Unequivocally in a Major Bear Market
The chart below plots the DAX against off its Apr-15 high vs. the paths it took off its two other most recent and major structural highs, those being the Mar-00 and Oct-07 peaks that led to 65% and 55% bear…
With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally
I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...
Gold’s To-Date Progress off its December 2015 Lows & Why $1,375-$1,475 Should be a Worst-Case Outcome for the Current Rally
Over the past year we’ve built a catalog of work on the site calling for a major low in gold. Within that body of work we attempted to form high-probability downside price targets for the metal that would offer attractive opportunities to begin…
USD Rallies in a Historical Persepctive
Below I’ve analoged the three major rallies the USD (trade-weighted USD vs. major currencies) has enjoyed since the 1970s when the US abandoned the fixed-rate exchange system and linkages to gold that had been employed since Bretton Woods. As mentioned,…...
Gold’s Moment of Clarity
I believe the work I’ve done on gold over the past year is arguably the best I’ve ever done on this site, both in terms of quality and how comprehensive it’s been. I stand by that even should the conclusions from…...